Combo Draw Multiway
On the flop, I have 3 choices with my combo draw (I have 44% equity vs sets, 51% equity vs 2p, and 57% equity vs board pairs).
(1) In game, I decided to bet small because I didn't think I'd have fold equity vs 3 villains, and I wanted to give a good price to dominated draws.
(2) Check back. This makes sense because we lack fold equity vs 3 villains, and just want to realize free equity.
(3) Bet pot. This makes sense because we're never in bad shape when called or raised, and want maximum fold equity.
Against 1 or 2 villains, I think potting makes the most sense. But against 3 villains, I should have just checked back. Thoughts?
As played, should I have just called BB's flop raise, with plans to fold board pairing turns?
5 Replies
I think we are too deep and mw to play B100 as a strat. Better at spr 3, for example, because we can play many more hands for the sum of "deny equity" and "priced to gii" (ranges from fistpump to sigh). You could argue "for exploit" but shrug that's not something anyone can help you with here, essentially saying "trust me it's best."
I think my default is to think about my strat for dynamic unpaired flops as pfr in single raised pot ip (B67) and size down because its mw. I dunno how much but the lower we go the more competitive checking back becomes. On balance, id prolly settle on B50 so that I can start building a pot.
I think checking is worse than betting with this combo because the pot is small, lowering the value of a free card. Betting clearly generates more ev imo, not only immediately because it increases pot size, but also because our outs are nutty and we will have more clearly best actions later in the hand. Our position adds playability, incentivizing pot growth. More likely to check back something more middling than this all the way down to air. I prolly bet weakly too often in my soft live game. Straightforward hand selection from top down should be best mw.
Related questions that is not in play here is "should they have leads?" (Yes) "Do they play enough leads?" (No). These impact our betting frequency more than our sizing. Our top end hand here isn't in question.
Lastly, try to frame you poker decisions in terms of "best choice" rather than "good choices." Ime this is common thinking that can be improved. Apologies if this seems simplistic but it helps.
All your outs are to the nuts. 15 otf and 14 ott if its J-A. With 41% equity, you desperately want as many people in the pot as you can get.
While betting this flop reveals part of your hand strength in that you v frequently have the nfd, you very rarely have 345, so any of those outs come with great implied odds (and some improving of draws for others).
The bigger you bet, the more you get folds, where you want calls. But your hand is far too good to check. So bet small is great.
Thanks. After I bet and get raised pot, I'm almost certainly up against a set. Does it make sense to just call his raise rather than GII, because I can always fold board pairing turns?
Thanks. After I bet and get raised pot, I'm almost certainly up against a set. Does it make sense to just call his raise rather than GII, because I can always fold board pairing turns?
Yes. Just call and use our positional advantage as well as having an easy to play hand that doesn’t need to bust if board pairs
Thanks. After I bet and get raised pot, I'm almost certainly up against a set. Does it make sense to just call his raise rather than GII, because I can always fold board pairing turns?
As well as you may get a free card on a 789 turn or the small chance to bluff if you think there’s any fold equity vs this player….we can jam the 7 and chk back the 8/9. Jamming only serves to negate your positional advantage
