Am I crazy turning hand into bluff here?
2-2 live 5 to call 6 handed
I know Villain from holdem, he's your typical nit but only plays shortstack. I assume he plays the same for plo.
Effective stacks 390
V in mp limps
H in btn w/QJJ4 limps
blinds call
4way pot 20
Flop J♣9♦2♦
all check
we pot to 20
V calls
Pot 60
Turn 7♥
V pots to 60
We know he turned it, and call
Pot 180
River 3♦
V checks
Is it crazy to pot river? we have no showdown value.
Was it better to fold turn?
12 Replies
Not crazy but super read based on how well you think you know him
We have a diamond? I don’t think we need to bet full pot to make him fold a straight.
Better to bluff with diamond blocker, but in general we have to much showdown to turn this hand into a bluff.
If you know he turned it, you also need to know you'll be able to bluff him and on which rivers, in order to call the turn.
Top set seems like it has moderate showdown value.
As you discovered, villain can have lots of flush-draw equity here with his flop call. I might bluff here if I had the bare ace.
As played, i think you need to check back and hope this is the ~20% of the time where a nitty short stack shows up with a curiously played J9 / 99/ 77 / 22
Top set seems like it has moderate showdown value.
As you discovered, villain can have lots of flush-draw equity here with his flop call. I might bluff here if I had the bare ace.
As played, i think you need to check back and hope this is the ~20% of the time where a nitty short stack shows up with a curiously played J9 / 99/ 77 / 22
He has us beat way more than 80%. He basically always has at least a straight.
Juuuust fold pre.
on the turn, a straight is the nuts. So you're saying a generic nitty shortstacks will -only- ever call-bet with the nuts. That's not my experience, but YMMV.
I don't understand the logic in calling a pot-sized turn bet if we "know" we're behind a straight. If we believe villain will fold to a river that completes a flush, then we must believe the villain will fold to a river which completes a boat. Thus we have no implied odds.
As played: only bluff against specific villains I've got experience seeing them make this kind of laydown.
If I do bluff, I bet $100-$120, because I think that will get the fold as frequently as $180 will get it done.
No diamonds no bleff