AA9T

I'd raise pre OOP 3 ways. It's harder to play post but more profitable I think.

As played flop check is good.

I would size up to B100 ott. The more dynamic the board the less being capped from previous street matters.

As played, I would check the river intending to call.

I'd go 1/3 to 1/2 pot targeting 2pr/set. Think it's gonna be hard to get much air to bluff with a chk seeing as no one bet flop

personally,
200/fold
or
x/call

We have the 2nd nuts in a spot where it’s very rare he has the nuts. Bet fold seems like a punt.

Gotta raise pre.

As played, I prefer value betting river, mostly targeting worse 2p. I guess 50 - 75% psb is OK.

i disagree with both points. I don't think a 20bb bet/fold constitutes a punt 150bb deep and i don't think it's rare for him to have nuts, esp with little to no backup, something like 9876 and no fd. naked nuts or near naked nuts often check the flop multiway. So not only is it not rare, it's also not difficult and aligns with his play thusfar to river.

with betbig/fold my thinking is this, extract max value from worse hands that will pay and get away from a slowplayed, protected nut.

x/c possibly gets all air to stab and take everything better to value town while protecting yourself against nut and protecting rvr checking range.

you show concern about having to fold to a raise while simultaneously having the read it's difficult for him to hold nuts here. If this is the case, this would have to change the river play to betbig/call, no?

thoughts?

We shouldn't really be betting big bc given the lines taken we have the nuts way more than him, we also have a nut blocker, also a T blocker which means it's gonna be hard for him to have any kind of hand that can hero call here if we bet big. 1/2 pot probably the biggest we should bet if we want 2pr to crying call here wo a read that he's a really sticky non believer. x/c can be pretty good too, def think it's better than betting on the larger end as we pick up any air he might fire with

I think betting small and calling a raise is better than betting big. I also think we don’t get raised very often.

My issue with xc is villain hand is just so capped from the action and Hero's holding.

Hero can at least have bluffs on dynamic, two-tone turn, so I think we should be making villain bluffcatch, even though I agree, he will be folding a lot of his range.

There are a ton of draws out there that all missed and I just don't see what kind of hand he could have that would pay you off. I think you make more money in the long run by bluff catching here, especially if V is a good pro. You will get called sometimes with a small bet on the river, but will still see more folds than not. If we do bet, I like 1/3 hoping two pair or smaller set tries to keep you honest.

I would like to add that a lot of this also depends on your history with the V.

Agreed, as I said I like 1/3 to 1/2 pot but once we start thinking about going 3/4+ then x/c will be better than this sizing

why be concerned with betting larger? i like a standard 2/3 rvr bet for value. play it like we would the nuts. there's lots that can call us and you better believe there's a good chance villain can have nut here. And we can fold to a raise. no1 here thinks he ever has nuts anyway.

you can't size down just bc you dont want to be raised. and we shouldn't size down to target weaker holdings otr. remember we have 2nd nut. if you bet small you may think not much can call you but you will miss value on many hands that rank below 2nd nut. we can't size down just bc we don't have nut, that's would be very face up and exploitable.

x/c is another way to go, induces bluffs from some air that will fold out to your bet anyway. mitigates the times you're up against nut. And you will get some villains to value own themselves.

Already stated my case, not saying villain can't have the nuts but it's very very unlikely considering he's the IP player and chk'd back flop. He most likely has some kind of pair+draw or NFD or 2pr/set type hand. Betting big we just have a harder time getting called by a lot of players with 8765 and the likes. He's gonna crying call bottom set for 1/2 pot and might also for larger size but he's gonna fold bottom 2pr or even A8 potentially