89TJQ
5-10-20 PLO. V in bb is a whale, but his 4b range is aces only. 4K eff.
Hero in CO with 89TJQds with QJdd
Pre: MP opens 75, hero makes it 250, sb cold calls, V snap pots to 1090, only hero calls
Flop (2270) : KdQxTd
V checks
So we have a straight, 2 pair and a royal draw. SPR is around 1.25
3 Replies
Probably a good spot to give a free card and pray he bluffs turn with like AdAK54 type hand on a blank or if a diamond hits. I think if he has AAK54 with NFD he probably pots flop so good chance he's drawing to very little equity vs your hand. And if he flopped some sort of monster like AAJxxdd there's nothing you can do about it anyway but pray for your 4 outer
If you were deeper, small with a wide range, setting up triple barrel would be best, I think. But at 1.2 I think two streets probably better. Geo is just under B45 for two streets. Although exploitativly smaller may be a little better if whale is trustworthy. Trick is finding enough bets, not whether to bet this hand.
I think whether to bet flop is def in question. If he has pure dry AA he has almost no equity and we want to extract some bluffs potentially. Even with like AAK54 or AAKQ5 with BDNFD he only has 16% and 27% equity. And if he has AAJxxdd we're kinda rekt regardless of what we do
Now if he's almost purely a station type whale then yea betting flop for 1/3 will likely be better but if we know he for sure has AA and seemingly doesn't have NFD with it since he didn't bet then we potentially have much more to gain by checking than we do betting if he's got any decent kind of aggression in him postflop