KKJJ flops OESD vs 2 players
This is mostly a NLH game with a bit of PLO mixed in.
I open KKJJ rainbow to 30 over a couple of limps and we see a flop 5 ways which comes QsTh3s. I have the Ks in my hand.
Three checks to a tightish reg in MP who bets 60 into 150, I call last to act, SB calls others fold. SB starts the hand with around 800 and MP with 1200, I cover.
SB is mostly a NLH player, pretty loose, oscillates from somewhat to very aggressive depending on tilt, but tends to play PLO a bit more passive / ABC. Capable of playing well but usually ends up bluffing too much and spewing off his chips.
MP is passive preflop, on the tight side but also mixes in some weird bluffs here and there, he knows PLO and is a decent handreader. He will certainly limp some big pairs pre and can be kind of trappy. He tends to keep betting if he doesn't get raised.
My image is solid / aggressive.
Turn is a 3h, checks to MP who bets 200 into 330.
My read on this player is that he just doesn't play QQ or even TT like this very often, I think he would either bet larger with sets on the flop or go for a x/r. I had a feeling like he had a strong but not nutted combo hand like KQJ or QJ9 with spades, but wanted to keep betting, having correctly assessed that neither of his opponents is likely to have a set or a naked 3 here very often.
Curious for thoughts on the flop as well as your turn action and plans for various river scenarios.
4 Replies
Probably should fold the flop - guy is betting 5 ways. Problem is you have all the wrap blockers and now he's betting big 3 way on the turn - I don't think QJ9 with spades bets the flop unless it's nut spades possibly.
I don't think he can fold this flop getting that price that deep, last to act. V may have bet into 5 ppl, but he bet $60 into $150 5 ways, on a draw heavy board. That screams a big draw to me. However, is that a big draw that includes QT or works around the QT with the NFD, or does it also include a QT3x (KQT3, QJT3, AsQTs3, etc.) or Q3/T3 with an OESD and/or nut spades type of hand as well, which is issue here. With no one raising his flop bet on such a draw heavy board, he can comfortably bet a weak Q3 or T3 full house now.
As played, I think you have to fold the turn for these reasons, as it will be very hard to play your hand even if you hit the A or 9. Are you willing to call $500-$600 on the river if the 9 hits and he still fires? The question is if raising the flop is a better option than just calling.
Call flop, fold turn. Now behind bare qt (though it essentially always comes with something extra), difficult to get paid off, difficult to get to showdown when we're best.
Turn is a pretty easy fold as played.
It was 5 players to flop, your hand is not high enough in range to stick around any longer, your straitght outs might not even scoop.
