Get it in or avoid the cooler and check for pot control?
PLO5. AKdd/6J9
5 card double Board PLO, $15 bomb pot 8 ways.
Hero first to act. $120 pot. $1k eff
Flop:
10/9/7ddd
10/6/5
Hero has nut flush on top board and bottom pair on the bottom.
Are we just piling it in here and hope someone doesnβt have the SF?
12 Replies
This is a very dangerous board for our nut flush. Also notice that TT has us crushed too. I would check and evaluate.
Agreed, I would also check and take it from there. I'll mostly proceed by check-calling flop.
Agree w/ check/evaluate.
I think checking is missing tons of value.
Query: H has the nut flush on Board 1, but not the nuts, as 86dd/J8dd both make straight flushes, right? And ofc, the usual board-pairing hijinks are still possible, albeit H has 1 of the required outs in their hand. And 2/4 Ts are on the board. On Board 2, just a pair of 6s and three to a straight, but otherwise bupkis.
Start with a check, first to act, but would thinning the herd with a x-r be that bad? TT isn't going away, nor are a lot of sets, but that fear of getting quartered cuts both ways, doesn't it?
H has to fade 2 Ts, 2 9s, and 3 7s on the turn. Minus 2 outs from the hypothetical V having a set already, that's 5 outs/~10%. 90% of having a lock on a half, isn't bad. 8 outs on the river, assuming a turn whiff. So, .9 * .84 equals H's NF holding up about 3/4 of the time, and H still isn't totally dead on Board 2, AFAWK.
I'm ignoring the minute SF possibility vs the much larger FH possibility. If flop goes, Pot/Repot/Repot, H'll be like, "K'then," and fold. But let's cross that bridge when we get to it.
Some numbers:
with 7 other random hands the chance of running into
TTxxx = 8.5% (our equity is 42% combined)
J8dd/86dd = 16.5% (our equity is ~25% combined)
So roughly 25% of the time we are in kinda bad shape.
Next question, assuming we are not up against the hands that are bad for us, how should we play?
We could bet big, hoping that everyone folds. That's actually not such a bad idea, given that few hands can continue with the Kd also in our hand.
A bare Q-hi flush has to fold and so should a set of sixes or fives without backup. Double sets (7755x) are very rare and we block those, too.
I think this plan is not too terrible, it is just an uncommon thing to do first to act with relatively deep stacks and bet/folding seems kinda gross.
You could also bet small to get calls from sets/ medium flushes/ double two pairs. With a hand that is only strong on one board, you would either need to get it multiway
or hope to fold out everyone on later streets. Again, you don't like to see a raise.
Check-raising is not a real thing, unless people bet-fold a lot, which few players do in DBBP.
Checking to check-call is my favourite. From the first position, the default should be to check anyway. Against a bet and a raise we can fold. Against a single bet we can call and induce multiway action. We keep the pot small going to the turn when we will have a much clearer picture of our hand's value on the top board. The medium flushes will be more confident once the flop checks through and that could be beneficial as well.