Is river a fold???
2/2 live 5 to call 8 handed
Rock straddle to 5 is out every hand, preflop positions are weird every hand.
Effective 500
BB rock straddles to 5.
UTG opens to 15.
Some callers
Hero in Btn picks up J982ds we decided to play the button.
some more callers.
7 way pot 105
Flop T♦8♣6♥
all check.
Turn Q♣ (not our suits)
SB bets 55 (he's a nit/tag, he only has nuts+ multiway here)
MP calls
MP+1 calls
We call (yea it kind of sucks with no redraw or we folding here???)
Pot 325
River K♥
SB barrels for 150
Folds to hero
Hero???
6 Replies
Call turn fold river. It would be pretty suicidal for him to bluff or bet J9 here. He could have JJ as a bluff but that doesn’t fit his description.
Turn we might be too shallow to just call. Even if SB jams and both in between fold, that's putting in 41% of the money. Getting hu with nuts plus club redraw means we would have 36% equity so clearly that loses. It's not the worst case but prolly most common, about the same as QQJ9 and worse off than vs QJT9 (~43%).
But does it lose more than calling and letting the in between guys draw effectively "for free"? With the chance to make mistakes on some rivers? Jamming does give up position but how often will we be in a position to cause them to make river mistakes at SPR 1.3? Seems that'll happen infrequently.
I'm not sure what to do, though. Minclick to 125? Half the remaining stack to ~260? We would really like the in between players to put in more money. SB may not care enough to help.
Turn we might be too shallow to just call. Even if SB jams and both in between fold, that's putting in 41% of the money. Getting hu with nuts plus club redraw means we would have 36% equity so clearly that loses. It's not the worst case but prolly most common, about the same as QQJ9 and worse off than vs QJT9 (~43%). But does it lose more than calling and letting the in bet
We getting money in with 0 redraw facing nutted range?
When money goes in, we are chopping at best. While sb can freeroll us for our stack.
I might as well fold if I want to shove for a chop.
I fold preflp (2 kills it for me), pot the turn, soul read river, AP proly calling
In game, I called.
V shows AJ9ccc.
Afterwards, I think river is a clear fold.
Turn might be a fold vs this villain as well.
Assuming you believe what you wrote about SB(that he is only betting the nuts) the question is already answered.
