DBBP Shove Trips for Fold Equity Against Small Flushes?

Doubt you can fold out everyone. Someone with nut spades or 55 could be trapping. Possibly call, but I'd actually lean toward fold. You have 0 equity on one board and anywhere from 0 to maybe 70 percent equity on the other. Not a situation where I'd be happy shipping it.

Interesting spot,

As with many low SPR situations, it's a good idea to throw numbers at the problem.
I would start out by simplifying to the most likely scenario: we shove, EP shoves and the other players fold.
Next we assume that EP has either the nut flush or 55 and bets those full frequency.
Obviously, it's way easier to have the nut flush compared to 55.
They have the nut flush 88% and fives 12% of the time.
Your equity vs. random nut flush is 45%, vs 55 it's 10%
Equity vs. EP shoving range is therefore 40,8%
Pot-odds wise we risk 1000 to win 1650, so we need 37,7% equity.
So for the simplified scenario we have a slightly +EV shove (+80$)

I would however agree with PLOhMyGod that the other players, especially HJ might be slowplaying one of the above mentioned hands. Then you obviously have close to 0% equity.
This scenario only has to occur ~10% of the time to ruin your marginal profit.
Given that it's hard to find many other reasonable calling hands ( JJxx, Kss, that's about it, even for a weaker player), I'm afraid you get the bad news more than 10% of the time.

But maybe EP is capable of bluffing in this spot and you sometimes drive everyone out (unlikely).
Or MP stacks off with the Kss (hard to tell how big a 'big fish' is 😉)

I guess I discount 55 so much because there's a 5 on both boards. Also because if I had 55, I would want to bet pot and raise pot to drive out non-nut flushes and win the whole pot outright (it's hard to boat up on bottom with three 4s already out).

Shove would be spew.

Shove seems awful. I think fold is best. What do you even think they have.

So y’all are just folding, 150 to win half of 800 and low SPR, with a near-equity lock on top as long as no one has the case 55xx?

150 bet into a 350 bomb pot, I see a lot of non-nut flushes. But he’s a TAG, so maybe he can only have mostly nut flush and occasionally the case 55xx.

Big fish can have an 876x wrap. Euro caller can have a lot of non-nut flushes and JJxx.

What ****ing near equity lock. Did you write the boards wrong

Thinking the same exact thing lol. I'd lean towards fold, but I don't mind peeling once to see if a A or K comes on top. Folding the turn to pretty much anything else.

What else has much equity on 544o except the case 55xx? The last 4 is on the bottom board. If no one has the case 55xx, we're 80–90% on the top board. Or am I missing something?

Villain(s) can have flushes on bottom board then freeroll you with st8draws/boat draw.

At the end of the day you only have trips on one board, the other you lose for sure.

When the money goes in, you're chopping at best, while others freeroll your entire stack.

So if I throw some primate math at this, we should still win half of 800 70% of the time. 30% of the time, we lose 1k. So –20 EV if we shove.

A lot of my thought process was predicated on having some fold equity. But it looks like we have zero fold equity.

I still think calling 150 in position is much better than folding.

If you shove, and 1 of them call, you're winning only half of 650 at best, which means, 1000 to win 325 at best.

If you shove and more than 2 call, I think you might be dead, 55 will be out there for sure.

Sorry Boom, but I think it’s more likely that one of them has 55 than none of them do. Probably far more likely.

With you having the case 4 there’s a very limited range of possible hands for the THREE opponents to have. What’s the worst hand an EP TAG is betting here? Do big fish get pegged as such by folding flopped non-nut flushes? Could Euro have an overpair or rrsfd on top, and an oesf on the bottom? If he has a dry 55, might he be waiting for the turn to shove?

Plus there are no runouts that give you the nuts on either board, and still three players left to act behind you.

Fold.

Y'all are right. Shove is probably a spew. I was optimistic to think—

1. There are several non-nut flushes out there, maybe a JJxx too, and I have fold equity against those hands.

2. It's impossible for anyone to have 55xx because if I had 55xx, I'd pot and raise pot to push out non-nut flushes.

Overpairs, random straight draws, backdoor flush draws and so on. 80-90% is a bit optimistic. You also have very close to 0% on the other board.

6-way I fold. Bottom board got nothing. Top board still dicey. Too easy to continue and loose stack here, at best contiunuing to chop the pot ???