live ~ This was supposed to be a check?
2/2 ~ 9 handed timed rake no bring in
V1 ~ fish eff 200
V2 ~ huge station eff 1100, only raises w/the nuts, calls down with bottom set. Calls super wide preflop(random trash).
V2 limps in utg
some limpers
Hero in mp opens to 10 w/A♦K♦Q♥9♥
V1 calls in btn
some more callers including v2
6way pot 60
Flop Q♦7♦4♣
checks to hero
Hero cbets 30(Only v1 behind us, how bad was this cbet?)
V1 calls
V2 x/r pot to 175(V only does this w/QQ only)
Hero??? We hate life, we wished we had a bit more equity vs v2.
5 Replies
If you're certain he has QQ, then you're drawing to 8 outs. 18.6% chance to hit on the turn. So you need $780 in EV to call off the $145. The pot is $295, which means you need $485 in implied odds. That's approximately 1/2 of V2's remaining stack.
So will villain stack off >50% of the time after the turn hits the flush? Your description implies he will call off 100% of the time, which means you should call. Be prepared to sigh-fold paired boards.
As for "how bad was your cbet?" .. it seems like a bet with mostly downside and no upside.
Nothing inherently wrong with your cbet. You block the top set and have some bdsd's.
OOP has so many autofolds based on playing a weak range and is continuing fd's you dominate. Your hand loves a fold, and loves a continue. XR from villain is bad, given you have k of diamonds, his hand is either a set, or nutlowwrap. QQ much more likely as people limpt this UTG a lot. You can call the raise continue vs pot picking up a Broadway draw. However, this sounds like a player who is not xr 15% of the time, so your adjustment is almost to cbet your entire range.
I think well played vs this opponent, don't be results oriented.
I think flop is a good cbet with properties that generate folds. This deep we should call, especially when station might pay us if we hit.
I think it's fine so far, too. I call expecting better odds when V1 comes along.
Why exactly do we hate life here? Iād be pretty ecstatic that money is going in the middle. Easy call.
