2/2 Live - do we get it in with quads
From the title I feel like everybody is just thinking "uh.. yeah" so there needs to be details, which unfortunately I don't fully have.
Live 2/2 PLO 9 handed with $10 UTG straddle
As crazy as this sounds the hand right before this.. I had KK33 and raised pre with multiple calls. Flop 766 checks through. Turn K checks to me I bet with 1 caller (whale). River K. He leads, I raise, he re-raises, I jam and he says if you really have it, that's ridiculous, then calls. I say I do. He had 66XX. ~6k pot.
While I'm still stacking all the chips, dealer deals the cards. I'm in MP and didn't realize it was on me so I call pre in the dark. Problem with this hand history is I didn't write it down after. I can't remember how much it was pre and the bet sizes/pot size exactly besides the river.
Hero Q885sss
Flop 8c6d5d
Checks to LP who bets, BTN, EP, Hero call.
Turn 8d
Checks through
River ($300) 9x
Check, Hero $200, LP Pot to $900, folds to hero. Hero?
So LP is the only other pro in the game. We both gamble here and there and get out of line occasionally to make the game fun with the fish and give action, but he is a solid player. He is 3k effective on the river vs me. BTN has $400ish. Can't remember the other folding players stack. He pretty much never does this with 66/55. I don't know if he even really bluffs here with multiple players in the hand. I'm not saying he shouldn't bluff ever, but people in this game haven't been folding. It's possible he bet with a hand like A99Xdd, 997X, T997, etc. It's also possible he has one of the straight flushes. His only bluffs probably include 7d but I still don't see him turning a straight or something into a bluff with that. Since he's a pro and I'm a pro, I kind of think in his position he should consider folding 99XX to a 3bet here. Some of the fish at our table would jam 98XX and worse boats but he knows I wouldn't. It looks extremely strong if I try to put him all in. I can't even think of any bluffs I'd have here to 3bet besides a hand with 7d.
Not sure if my analysis is correct, but do we just get it in and if he has it, he has it? Or do we flat?
We’re only beating bluffs. If he doesn’t bluff enough like you claim then exploit him and fold.
I think it's just a call. 99 is his most common hand, but he is likely folding it to a 3bet.
bunch of fucken nits
H1 and H2 are very different outcomes. You're capped pretty strong with KK given the action. But with 88 you're uncapped so V has to raise river for thick value when he has it. 3bet him.
I don't think river is a 3bet just call.
If you nits are even entertaining the idea of not jamming for value here, you should be 3b every river in the history of PLO where your opponent can’t have a straight flush.
So you are all telling me if you got to this river with the 7d you will 3b jam this river every time cuz a good player will fold QUADS!!!!!!!
You won’t even 3b this river for fear of running into 98 in practice or some nonsense like bottom under boat.
Jam pussies
If you nits are even entertaining the idea of not jamming for value here, you should be 3b every river in the history of PLO where your opponent can't have a straight flush. So you are all telling me if you got to this river with the 7d you will 3b jam this river every time cuz a good player will fold QUADS!!!!!!!You won't even 3b this river for fear of running into 98 in pract
This seems like really bad thinking. Why should 99 pay off if we jam? There's 2 straight flushes and quads from his POV.
Just calling everyone a nit and pussy with no actual analysis of the hand and spot is a waste of posting.
Ya that’s what I figured.
If you are not jamming quads because you think 99 is folding at full frequency
Then you should be jamming the 9d and 7d 100% of the time in this line, especially if you have an 8 with it. Hell we should be bluff jamming an 8 only at 100% frequency too.
But we all know damn well we aren’t doing that. Logically inconsistent.
Jam
Well I certainly would rather jam 8x 9d/7d for bluff than 88 for value, if I assume 99 is folding most of the time. Why are we acting stupid again?
This seems like really bad thinking. Why should 99 pay off if we jam? There's 2 straight flushes and quads from his POV.
Because hero can easily have worse boats with a blind limp pre that look like value given how this hand played out. So V is going to raise the 2nd and 3rd nuts here all the time
The fact that someone (eche) just made up flawed arguments and tried to stage that that is what others (including me) said instead of discussing what was actually said has nothing to do what some other bozo said in a NLHE thread. Cool story anyway!
Point is, if you are not jamming quads because you believe every value hand that you beat FOLDS, then you should be jamming every hand you get to this river on that has a 9d, 7d, or an 8 since you force every value hand that beats you to fold.
So....are you all blindly jamming those hands in this spot as a bluff since your opponent can never call you on this river without a straight flush? In your opinion of course.
Or....
Are you all not jamming those hands cuz you get snapped by any boat, and sometimes even the nut flush?
Some players aren’t capable of folding big hands. Some always fold big hands. You don’t have to do the same thing against every opponent.
I consolidated the likely action/odds below to help me picture the whole thing. A question arose for me—should hero have bet the flop? I don’t know.
Also, if hero shoves on the river, how likely is it villain with 9s full thinks hero could have quads—quads/sf on btb hands, especially given their history of getting out of line with each other? I don’t know, but I’m starting to lean shove now.
In fact, after looking at it again closely, it IS a shove. The most likely scenario imo by over 99% is villain has 997dX and thinks hero (CITD PF and just won a monster with quads) is getting OOL with like 894dXd, and HE will be the one saying IYGIYGI as he calls the 3K shove.
And, if hero shoves and villain folds, he should flip over 85.
amok, in 20+ years, how many times have you seen sf > quads, or a player get btb quads?
Spoiler
2/2 PLO 9-handed, 10 UTG straddle. Action likely went:
Preflop: EP, hero MP, villain LP, BTN, BB limp, UTG checks. Hero is stacking huge pot from previous hand with quad kings and CITD with Q885sssx. Hero & villain are the only pros, and have a long history.
Flop (60): 8c6d5d. Checks to villain (should hero have bet?) who pots, BTN EP hero call.
Turn (300): 8d checks through.
River (300): 9x. Check, hero 200, villain 900, fold, fold, hero? EP stack unknown, hero effective, villain 3000, BTN ~400.
Odds of quads in PLO: ~1/125
Odds of btb quads in PLO: ~1/15625
Odds of sf in PLO: ~1/72193
Odds of sf & quads in PLO if top set & oesfd flopped: ~1/212
I consolidated the likely action/odds below to help me picture the whole thing. A question arose for me-should hero have bet the flop I don't know.Also, if hero shoves on the river, how likely is it villain with 9s full thinks hero could have quads-quads/sf on btb hands, especially given their history of getting out of line with each other I don't know, but I'm starting to lean
In 5 card this week we had straight flush vs quads twice in one day.
2 or 3 years back the same player had a royal and straight flush in consecutive hands.
Results:
Spoiler
Hero calls. V has 74dd. Even though I was right in this instance, wasn't sure if I should be shoving. This brings me to my next question. Should he be betting the turn? I talked to him after the hand and he feels like him checking turn was a mistake. Considering we are 4 handed to the turn and there are 2 fish involved, it's possible they might call down with the A high flush and boats. Someone should have those types of hands when calling the flop.
