All-in on flop with top set
I've gone back and forth on always shoving on the flop if I hit top set or waiting at least for a dry turn if the board is really wet.
However, I was thinking about it today. The live games I play are very loose, lots of chasers. And it seems to me, if I can ever get it all-in on the flop with top set against at least two other players, then that is mathematically the right thing to do?
From the flop I have about a 34% chance to improve by the river, so with multiple callers I am getting at leat 2:1 pots odds and should always try to get it in?
Of course with lots of callers, there is more of a chance they hit the board in other ways, pairs or sets, which reduces your outs, but I am pretty much talking about when there's a great chance you have multiple other players shoving with draws.
The only real benefit I see for not trying to jam it in would be possibly reduced variance.
3 Replies
I am assuming 4-card. How deep do you play? If 100bb, yes I agree, most of the time you should try to just get it in especially if there is a possibility for multi-way allin. Sometimes you get it in as 40-60 dog but so what.
Especially deeper you need to consider the board carefully. Is it more likely they have top2+something, middle set or a draw. I'd nearly always fast play if the former ones are likely.
Given we are discussing O/8 there is a huge difference between having top set on a A57 board vs a K93 board.
