Big O Tournament Hand
6 handed, UTG opens, cutoff calls, we defend AJT42 with nut diamonds.
SPR is 2 on flop. Hero is effective stack. 12 left, 6 paid, so there is some ICM.
Flop is Q98r with 8 of diamonds, so we flop the nuts, with Backdoor Nut Flush, and back door lows.
Great flop for us, but should we be leading? If so, sizing?
11 Replies
With A2 a clear check for me.
In game I bet. While I realize my A24 gives me plenty of protection from naked low draws, I still thought there are just too many cards that will give an opponent good equity, or even put them ahead of me.
If we didn't have the backup equity that this hand provides (say we had A3, and no nut flush draw), should we bet? If so, what size?
If you bet I think 3rd or half pot is reasonable.
This flop hits us hardest. We can donk small hoping they peel some weak A2 hands.
I think it's very opponent dependent.
Agreed. One of the reasons I did bet was the preflop raiser was quite tight preflop, and didn't bet at all post without a very strong hand; even his draws were played passively. I expected ~0 continuations on this board that just didn't hit him. He wasn't the kind to just cbet with AA when he didn't have much, and there just isn't much for him to have here, unless he has a big high only hand like AAKQJ or AAQQT, etc.
Giving a tight range a free shot at whatever back door equity they have seems bad; In addition to that, there was some ICM going on here as well. Taking down the pot will not be a bad result at all. While we might win a much bigger pot some of the time, the chances of turning this hand into a chop, or even 3/4 isn't necessarily worth it.
I do think the sizing here doesn't need to be huge, something like 1/3 to half pot will enable an easy turn shove, and that is what I'd do now, in retrospect.
If you bet this hand to make them fold backdoor equity what hands do you slow play here, or do you bet all your nutty hands?
UTG can check range if he wants to (IMO), but CO should stab a lot (for obvious reasons I think). Against your check (i.e. a player who mostly bets his good hands) I think CO can bet most of his range profitably.
With 2spr, I think check a lot. Checking with intention to check-raise all in.
Don't want to have tough decisions out-of-position on turns that pair the board when players called on a previous street. Also allows worse low draws that want to continue on the turn to do so.
Are you check calling a queen on the turn? Or are you (lead) betting pot, or if you're able to, going all-in?
Spoiler
I'm probably lead betting. If they bet, I'd either be folding or just getting it all in. So, might as well lead and make opponent make the right decision.
Whether you should c/r against a bet depends. I think you should call at least half of your nuts and the actual hand is a very obvious candidate for that.
Don't want to have tough decisions out-of-position on turns that pair the board when players called on a previous street. Also allows worse low draws that want to continue on the turn to do so.
Are you check calling a queen on the turn? Or are you (lead) betting pot, or if you're able to, going all-in?
It makes absolutely no sense to pot a bad card.
If you bet this hand to make them fold backdoor equity what hands do you slow play here, or do you bet all your nutty hands?
UTG can check range if he wants to (IMO), but CO should stab a lot (for obvious reasons I think). Against your check (i.e. a player who mostly bets his good hands) I think CO can bet most of his range profitably.
I think we do want to have a leading range here. Perhaps the hands with JT (or QQ?) with little back up make more sense than my actual hand, since free cards don't hurt as much.
Whether you should c/r against a bet depends. I think you should call at least half of your nuts and the actual hand is a very obvious candidate for that.
It makes absolutely no sense to pot a bad card.
So either full surrender or small sizing on bad-card-turns in this spot?
Makes sense. If board pairs, especially the Q, and you're trying to say that card was good for you, you would go small sizing begging for a call. ?? Or check