$1500 Big O WSOP line check
About 80 people left out of 2150, mid day 2. Most people at my table had between 10 and 20 BBs, a couple had much larger stacks. Average stack in the tournament was about 30 BBs,
Action folds to the button who as far as we can tell in our limited time with him has been playing pretty standard. He has 11 BBs and opens for pot. Hero is in SB with 20 BBs and looks down at AQ752 with nut spades. BB is in for his blind and ante and has seemingly been playing pretty snug (again limited time spent with him), although he does have a huge stack. Do we flat or 3bet?
Arguments for flatting:
-Protects our very precious stack in this big once a year tournament 17 hours deep as we approach the bigger pay jumps.
-Can see a flop before deciding if we want to commit and potentially fold on unfavorable ones, losing only the 3.5 BBs instead of 11.
-Can possibly outplay opponent post-flop if they act weak and prevent them from realizing their equity.
Arguments for 3-betting:
-On the flip side of that, if we do flat then hit the flop and they are passive we allow them to get away with their last 7.5 BBs when we could have made them put it in pre.
-Allows us to realize full hand equity. Even on a lot of "bad flops" that we might be inclined to fold, our equity will still be decent, especially if he doesn't have AA.
-Prevents us from getting outplayed by AJ2xx, A2345 type hands on bad flops. Button is in perfect position to shove any flop if I flat and check.
-BB more likely to fold, although with our hand I admit I can see an argument that we don't mind if he calls. Up for debate.
-The math says my hand is in good shape to flip vs a short stack button open range with the (hopefully) dead BB and ante out there and you have to win all the chips somehow. It would be like not shoving AK because you're worried about low pairs. Gotta win flips to win tournaments.
-There's also a slight possibly not worth mentioning image boost to be gained. Watch out raising this guy, he's not scared to race with you and could take you out, etc...
Thoughts?
6 Replies
I would flat call, because you don't have much of an equity advantage against his range, but your hand has good playability. You can better judge what your equity is with this hand than with many other strongish hands.
Being OOP is an advantage, as you can shove first. You are putting him allin. He may fold when calling would be cEV plus versus your actual hand. He is under ICM pressure being put allin. Plus it is lower variance for you if he folds the flop. I would shove most flops and just give up on the worst ones. Yeah, sometimes you get outplayed by another A2 when you give up on a bad flop.
I like flatting. Your hand is good, not great. Double suited, prob jam.
Maybe shove AA24 or bad AA that would be hard to play. In general, I think it is better to flat call and sort of make it a stop and go for villain's stack, although would check/fold some bad flops. You have advantages that it is villain's stack, and that you can act first to put pressure on and evaluate your hand versus the board.
I agree with that, but double suited I'd rather make sure I get to realize all my equity. I dont think you're going to get many folds on the flop from hands that you want to fold.
Not sure exact range, but you want to shove with most AA, because you have good equity with that on most flops and harder to determine with that if the flop hit your hand. So your flat calling range might be unbalanced towards stronger low hands like this.
Without reading replies I would jam here, but would flat with a 9 or unsuited KJT instead of the 7.
