Easy Value Bet?
What size do you go with if you do bet the river?
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software
NL Holdem 0.1(BB)
HERO (283.4BBs)
SB (36.5BBs) [VPIP: 83.3% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 9.1% | Hands: 6]
BB (30BBs) [VPIP: 20% | PFR: 20% | AGG: 33.3% | Hands: 6]
UTG (116.5BBs) [VPIP: 64.2% | PFR: 22.6% | AGG: 36.3% | Hands: 53]
HJ (98.5BBs) [VPIP: 10% | PFR: 10% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 10]
CO (103.8BBs) [VPIP: 26.7% | PFR: 13.3% | AGG: 12.5% | Hands: 15]
Dealt to Hero: J♣ J♥
UTG Calls 1BBs, HJ Folds, CO Folds, HERO Raises To 5BBs, SB Calls 4.5BBs, BB Folds, UTG Calls 4BBs
Hero SPR on Flop: [1.97 effective]
Flop (16BBs): 5♥ A♥ 2♠
SB Checks, UTG Bets 1BBs (Rem. Stack: 110.5BBs), HERO Calls 1BBs (Rem. Stack: 277.4BBs), SB Calls 1BBs (Rem. Stack: 30.5BBs)
Turn (19BBs): 5♥ A♥ 2♠ 4♠
SB Checks, UTG Checks, HERO Checks
River (19BBs): 5♥ A♥ 2♠ 4♠ A♣
SB Checks, UTG Checks, HERO
1 Reply
We never get bluff raised here vs 2 passive villains so if we beat 50% villains calling range we are required to bet. Given that fish won't fold any pair when 2 flush draws missed and A looks "unlikely" I also suspect villains ranges to be relatively inelastic to anything smaller than an overbet. This means very likely the only 2 legit options are either to check or bet around pot. 1/2 pot is the most intuitive size here but I actually think it could be a mistake based on my above logic.
Actually SB may be elastic and is also probably the player most likely to have an Ace so I guess we can size down here. I also think if we are targeting SB we should be more inclined to bet given SB has less incentive to raise his Ax with a player behind
