KTo SRP BTN VS BB
$0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hero (BTN): $11.17 (111.7 bb)
SB: $23.89 (238.9 bb)
BB: $13.11 (131.1 bb)
UTG: $10.77 (107.7 bb)
MP: $12.08 (120.8 bb)
CO: $5.75 (57.5 bb)
Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has T♠ K♦
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.23, fold, BB calls $0.13
Flop: ($0.51, 2 players) 4♥ K♣ 6♣
BB checks, Hero bets $0.29, BB raises to $1.12, Hero calls $0.83
Turn: ($2.75, 2 players) 9♦
BB bets $2.06, Hero calls $2.06
River: ($6.87, 2 players) 5♣
BB bets $9.70 and is all-in, Hero folds
Information on the opponent:
Hands:2923
Stats:23/19 - Fold to steal > 74
Flop: The problem I see here is that if I call the flop here, I'll probably have to call the turn often enough and that will be expensive, so I'm wondering what to do with the hand here. The opponent will surely have some flush draws.
Turn: I don't think the 9 changes much in his range here. He will still have flush draws and two pairs and sets. But can I fold here already?
6 Replies
The "raise flop" stat would be interesting here, I imagine with 3000 hands it starts to converge a bit. Against some opponents who never raise as a bluff here (with like 3~4% raise flop stat) I have no problem folding flop already. Otherwise call is very standard of course.
On the turn things get really dicey. This 9 is a brick for BB if they were semi-bluffing the flop. They should check quite often, and check a bit their value hands to balance. However I think many players are not good at this, and will keep betting too often when they raised the flop, either for value or as a bluff, and then give up the bluffs on the river. So, I think your call is still OK-ish.
What would you do if BB checks the turn?
X/R - BET Range:
Spoiler
This range contains a lot of no-made hands, especially on the turns that did not close the draw.
So I definitely wouldn't fold Top Pair on the turn.
X/R - BET - BET Range:
Spoiler
On the river, the range becomes much stronger and we should fold our Top Pairs.
However, keep in mind that opponents checking behind is a common response on the river (50%), leading to winning the pot.
So don't shy away from employing B/C-C-F lines with your top pairs, especially on boards rich in open draws.
As @boulgakov pointed out, the opponent's tendencies play a crucial role.
If your opponent exhibits an extremely low check/raise frequency on the flop, a common trait at micro stakes, opting for folds in the early streets would be a prudent decision.
Keep a keen eye on your opponents' patterns to inform your strategic choices.
Spoiler
X/R - BET Range:
Spoiler
This range contains a lot of no-made hands, especially on the turns that did not close the draw.
So I definitely wouldn't fold Top Pair on the turn.
X/R - BET - BET Range:
Spoiler
On the river, the range becomes much stronger and we should fold our Top Pairs.
However, keep in mind that opponents checking behind is a common response on the river (50%), leading to winning the pot.
So don't shy away from employing B/C-C-F lines with your top pairs, especially on boards rich in open draws.
As
oh boy let's compare
xR-B (raise, then b70)
xR-B-B
I like call, call, fold.
I think his fold to cbet and xr% are going to be relevant after 3k hands.
Thank you very much for your effort slyless. And also to the others. This has helped me a lot.
While the data above is very useful, players will generally decrease their x/r vs. larger cb sizings quite a bit (which is correct in theory, but just something to keep in mind).
The flop has value combos for villain of 44/66/K6s/K4s and plenty of potential bluffing combos. XXcc, 75s, 87s, 53s, 85s, etc. Calling flop and calling turn are very standard. Here the river is actually one of the worst cards for you--not only is it a club completing the flush, but it also completes several straight draws and reduces combos of potential bluffs. So, you should fold river.
