Borderline river valuebet in 3b pot UTG vs SB
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software
NL Holdem 0.10(BB)
BTN ($10.84) [VPIP: 19.4% | PFR: 17.9% | AGG: 40% | Hands: 69]
SB ($10.45) [VPIP: 27.9% | PFR: 24.3% | AGG: 41.5% | Flop Agg: 44% | Turn Agg: 31.3% | River Agg: 50% | 3Bet: 19.1% | Fold to 3Bet: 66.7% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 112]
BB ($10) [VPIP: 20% | PFR: 12.2% | AGG: 28.2% | Hands: 459]
HERO ($11.85) [VPIP: 25.9% | PFR: 20.4% | AGG: 34.7% | Flop Agg: 38% | Turn Agg: 32.9% | River Agg: 36.3% | 3Bet: 8.2% | 4Bet: 12.3% | Hands: 247981]
Dealt to Hero: K♣ Q♣
HERO Raises To $0.25, BTN Folds, SB Raises To $0.85, BB Folds, HERO Calls $0.60
Hero SPR on Flop: [5.33 effective]
Flop ($1.80): 9♣ 6♦ J♦
SB Bets $0.52 (Rem. Stack: $9.08), HERO Calls $0.52 (Rem. Stack: $10.48)
Turn ($2.84): 9♣ 6♦ J♦ 5♣
SB Checks, HERO Bets $2.30 (Rem. Stack: $8.18), SB Calls $2.30 (Rem. Stack: $6.78)
River ($7.44): 9♣ 6♦ J♦ 5♣ Q♠
SB Checks, HERO ?
Does anybody find a valuebet here, and if so how much?
I do think villain is more capped in practice than he should be in theory. However, does worse hands call us in practice? And if we re-open small and get shoved on, do we really want to fold against a seemingly aggressive villain with an unconventional 3b sizing?
6 Replies
It's thin but we're supposed to bet thin so maybe 45% or something from a stubborn JT or even TT. Good luck folding to a XJ though (though I think BF is > X)
Kinda awkward getting XRed on the turn with this combo though; we'd have to call off and not always drawing to the nuts. So i think XX turn then v-bet or bluff river is slightly better line.
It's thin but we're supposed to bet thin so maybe 45% or something from a stubborn JT or even TT. Good luck folding to a XJ though (though I think BF is > X)
Kinda awkward getting XRed on the turn with this combo though; we'd have to call off and not always drawing to the nuts. So i think XX turn then v-bet or bluff river is slightly better line.
I figured I had enough EQ to call off a turn shove with the gutter and overs to go, and thats why I went for the bet. I would check AT, 67, JT and the like and I do want to have some flushes in my turn bet line when it hits OTR. But it is a fair consideration.
So your line is B45-F. What do you think of B45-C?
River raises being so nutted I'd be hesitant. They have plenty of better hands. Some passives will call down OPs and TPTK here, some wilder fish will even have AQ. QJ gets there too. In short, not keen.
Interesting spot. I am going to look in GTO Wizard.
It is indeed jamming river at a good frequency. It likes your line.
Thanks a lot for the solves.
I notice that the solver checks back KhQh. That may mean that the EV is close-ish and population tendencies are more important in making a decision. Do you have the EV for shove vs a check or smaller bet?
never ever jam - only better is calling
bet 1/3 and fold to a raise
