Another turn OB probe spot

Turn Probe bet:

OB:

Not sure if we should protect our hand at the turn, it depends on our check flop range.

Calling with a plan to bluff against the opponent's check on the river makes sense.
For this, I would like more information about the opponent.
Against an unknown one, I tend to fold.

TY Slyless that's exactly what I was looking for! Is this BUvsBB specific or just BBvsIP?

Can you do me a favor and filter for Ace high boards/Ace high + 1 BW now for this spot? I'm assuming it will be a stronger range of OBs.

This is BB vs IP.

Axx boards:

Spoiler

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ABx boards:

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Here is the entire pool without reg/fish filtering.

Ty Sir! I'm going to compare this data to my CFP data but it looks like there are similar bluffs on Ace high boards using the OB turn probe relative to the aggregate (and more on Ace high + BW)?

That is very counter intuitive to me.

Calling

We cbet our BW gutshots and backdoor club draws otf so this hand represents one of our best as far as robust equity is concerned.

Our one pair hands such as KT, 54s have more outs but may be drawing dead, so I guess if we think villain is airballing a lot those could also work.

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Fold equity seems crazy.

Yeah wtf? 69% Fold OTT when BB OB's?

Is this real life.

Okay I think the samples are too low and that is why the numbers are out of whack.

Is raising out of the question?

Or is calling and then looking to bluff river vs check better?

Not sure... 8/8 folds on ABX.

I would guess you can raise atc in this spot.

lol is this some revelation I'm going to double check this turn raise spot but it looks insanely profitable.

Okay I am checking my CFP data and I think the turn raise get's MORE profitable the bigger they probe OTT. That is very counter intuitive.

I'm going to double check with Saulo on this as well because there is a 9% discrepancy in the aggregate on B150 Fold frequencies. I know MDF doesn't translate 1:1 because it isn't the river but that seems insane.

Another thing I noticed too is fold frequencies go up the further you get away from the Button. I'm looking at CO fold frequencies compared to BU and they are higher. I'm assuming UTG-HJ has the same trend.

Probably overbluffed by a decent margin.

KQ, KJ, QJ, 87s, 75s, 53s, 85s, XXcc etc. are all possible natural bluffing combinations whereas his natural value range probably won't contain many/any naked AX and just 2p+, which is only AT, A6, A4, 66, and 44. A6 and A4 offsuit combos discounted due to folding pre, ATs discounted due to 3b pre, and you're left with a pretty big difference between number of natural bluffs to choose from and number of natural vbets.

Now the question becomes is raising or calling better

If we raise, can we jam or is SPR too high?

I'm just worried if we raise smaller and villain decides to shove, we can't call right?

No I'm an idiot. Raising is awful.

Check out my post in the theory section where I get everything backwards.