Once Upon a Turn, I had the Nuts
How do you play the river?
First instinct is they still have plenty that we can get value from if we block. Then the question becomes can we ever call if they jam?
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software
NL Holdem 0.5(BB)
HERO (139BBs)
HJ (118.7BBs) [VPIP: 49.3% | PFR: 28.8% | AGG: 32.8% | Hands: 73]
CO (74.5BBs) [VPIP: 11.1% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 100% | Hands: 9]
BTN (174.2BBs) [VPIP: 18.6% | PFR: 17.1% | AGG: 41.2% | Hands: 73]
SB (100.4BBs) [VPIP: 20.8% | PFR: 20.8% | AGG: 37.5% | Hands: 24]
Dealt to Hero: A♣ J♦
HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Raises To 2.5BBs, SB Folds, HERO Calls 1.5BBs
Hero SPR on Flop: [24.81 effective]
Flop (5.5BBs): 4♠ T♦ K♥
HERO Checks, BTN Bets 2.5BBs (Rem. Stack: 169.2BBs), HERO Calls 2.5BBs (Rem. Stack: 134BBs)
Turn (10.5BBs): 4♠ T♦ K♥ Q♦
HERO Checks, BTN Bets 7.5BBs (Rem. Stack: 161.7BBs), HERO Raises To 28.3BBs (Rem. Stack: 105.7BBs), BTN Calls 20.8BBs (Rem. Stack: 140.9BBs)
River (67BBs): 4♠ T♦ K♥ Q♦ Q♣
2 Replies
I think just calling turn is better since this 2BW-->3BW is over barreled especially BUvsBB. He barrels a lot of his Axo hands.
I'd block river as played and fold to a jam, not sure if they bluff enough vs B30 OTR after B50-BC
The block migraine.
He probably doesn't jam AQ so I lean towards bet/folding at a 'call-me-Kx' 0.5ish pot level.