River bluff shove spots?
Hello, let's say i bet flop and turn with total air and the villain doesn't fold, only way to win pot is now to bet big
Let's say we're both 200BB deep and pot is already 70BB+, if i bet 140BB (x2 the pot) if bluff success 8 times out of 10, im winning +280BB (140BBx2= 280BB if i lose 2 times and 70BBx8=560BB if i win 8 times)
So our goal is to find river spots where villain will fold at least 8 times out of 10 if we bet big
On what board textures to bluff and what board textures to never bluff in your opinion? I need to find optimal spots
I think to be in position is a must to pull off a bluff like this right? because if villain doesn't donk/raise till the river he is less likely to have the nuts so this increases chances bluff to be successful but still need optimal board textures to maximize bluff efficiency
2 Replies
EV revolves around whoever has the most nutted combos in any particular spot. More strong hands = more bluffs. Whoever takes the betting lead pre usually has the stronger hands but not always. Double and triple barrel bluffs are very runout + range + opponent dependent so there isn't really a 'this texture is the best' answer to find.
It's more like, 'this is a good spot because of x,y.z'. good place to start is looking up and learning how indifference works. What is the purposse of a bluff to begin with? What are we trying to make villain do with different parts of their range?
But figuring out who has the strongest range is the heart of it. Humans play much worse than solvers so you don't need full gto understanding, you just need to be more range-aware than the other guy, both in regards to what your range wants to do and how they'll likely react to your strategy.
EV revolves around whoever has the most nutted combos in any particular spot. More strong hands = more bluffs. Whoever takes the betting lead pre usually has the stronger hands but not always. Double and triple barrel bluffs are very runout + range + opponent dependent so there isn't really a 'this texture is the best' answer to find.
It's more like, 'this is a good spot because of x,y.z'. good place to start is looking up and learning how indifference works. What is the purposse of a bluff to
First and the most important is the opponent type in this case, as you said double and triple barrel bluffs are opponent dependent, some opponents are capable of making big folds, some opponents can even call with bottom pair, usually if opponent calls down my bluff i make notes of that opponent but is there any stat that shows who are more likely capable of making big folds on the river? if not than i have to bluff blindly and then make notes who calls down and who not
Purpose of bluff is that every time opponent calls down our second barrel there is no other way to win the pot, either give big pot for free or just bluff and take it down
So let's imagine we 3bet preflop, opponent called, we have AK, we totally missed the flop but anyway we bet on flop and on turn too, opponent called, now its the river and we have ace high, pot is 70BB+, give this pot by checking or bet 140BB and bluff the opponent?
Or lets say we started with 99 instead of AK and we double barrel, high cards appear on the board like K and Q, now it's the river, pot is 70BB+, opponent clearly has our 99 beat since he called flop and turn, what we do? check and give it for free? or we bet 140BB and bluff, if bluff successes 8 times out of 10 we are winning big time
Here as i mentioned first and most important is opponent type, some opponents won't call down overbets unless they have nuts, they even throw top pairs maybe two pairs, some opponents will call down even with bottom pair because they are capable of making hero calls, do we bluff them blindly? here its 2 way, either we bluff and find out and make notes or we need some stats beforehand and by following that stats we can know who to bluff and who not to bluff
But only opponent type isn't enough in my opinion, bluff to be successful at maximum we need to know not only opponent type but also some board textures where bluff can work most likely and where it won't work
Also what is the optimal size to bluff with? 200% of pot or maybe 150% of pot can do the same?