[100NL] Tough river decision
[converted_hand][hand_history]iPoker - €1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3
BB: €110.41 (110.4 bb)
UTG: €157.65 (157.7 bb)
MP: €89.33 (89.3 bb)
CO: €157.72 (157.7 bb)
BTN: €100.00 (100 bb)
Hero (SB): €114.55 (114.6 bb)
Hero posts SB €0.50, BB posts €1.00
Pre Flop: (pot: €1.50) Hero has A♠ J♠
UTG raises to €2.50, 3 folds, Hero raises to €10.00, fold, UTG calls €7.50
Flop: (€21.00, 2 players) J♥ 8♠ K♠
Hero checks, UTG bets €11.55, Hero calls €11.55
Turn: (€44.10, 2 players) 9♣
Hero checks, UTG bets €24.25, Hero calls €24.25
River: (€92.60, 2 players) A♣
Hero checks, UTG bets €111.85
[/hand_history][/converted_hand]
No info
7 Replies
Not sure if villain ever has QTs here...
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I'd fold unless villain is very good or aggressive (or a fish), I see too many check backs with weak pairs that should bluff. Only low connectors is obvious here, but even then you look really strong OTR so they might not fire.
Stats? Roughly how often are opponents 4-betting AK UTG at your stakes? 50/50 mix or predominately more calls than 4-bets?
When you 3-bet and then x/c 3 streets on a double broadway flop, you really widen your opponent's bluffing range, so it's probably pretty close here depending on the above question.
I'd expect a lot of 88,99,JJ,AK. Occasional KK/AA from fish. Probably just fold.
Fold turn....if flush completes he might not even pay you off on river
Stats? Roughly how often are opponents 4-betting AK UTG at your stakes? 50/50 mix or predominately more calls than 4-bets?
When you 3-bet and then x/c 3 streets on a double broadway flop, you really widen your opponent's bluffing range, so it's probably pretty close here depending on the above question.
I'd say people vs me always 3bet AK because I have a big 3bet percentage (around 13%)
You can change your username pretty often where I play so he can be aware of this while I have no info of him yet
Solver cbets your combo >90% off the time on the flop. QTs is heavily discounted in UTGs range at equilibrium (NL500 rake) or not included (NL 50 rake).
As played I think it's a call, here are the combos Villain would need to bluff with, which I think most of he will find:
