BTNvsBB facing river XR

Call. Seems unlikely he doesn't bet a flush draw/JT on the turn, and the sizing looks bluffy. If he raised to 30-40$, I'd say he could be value raising worse, but the action and sizing don't make sense.

Why this sizing scheme?

Good point. FD's usually probe turn and don't x/c so he has less OTR.

I'd call. Especially if he took a lot of time to raise.

yeah love that timing tell.

Usually I OB turn but just potted here for whatever reason.

Didn't realize GTO went bigger OTR but I think this sizing might be better exploitatively.

Where did you ever see a solver bet 1/3 pot otr ip? 😃

Seems like a very easy spot to overbluff as BB, so I'd call.

What's the exploit?

Yeah the x/c turn surely we can’t fold this

I guess we’re beat by some QsXs

People don't xr the river enough, so you can use a small size sometimes even though it isn't a thing.

What does it usually mean when someone ramps up their aggression in a spot we are expecting them to not be aggressive?

lol good point, I still do dumb stuff a lot 😀

Okay I'm glad everyone is on the same page here, I think FD's point that FD's (double entendre?) probe turn is the most important point here so he won't have many in the x-xc-xr line.

Results!

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 2(BB)
HERO ($202) [VPIP: 28.9% | PFR: 24.1% | AGG: 36.7% | Flop Agg: 41.7% | Turn Agg: 33.8% | River Agg: 37% | 3Bet: 11.5% | 4Bet: 14.2% | Hands: 313364]
SB ($640.98) [VPIP: 39.3% | PFR: 35.7% | AGG: 42.9% | Hands: 28]
BB ($200) [VPIP: 29.6% | PFR: 25.9% | AGG: 30% | Flop Agg: 50% | Turn Agg: 0% | River Agg: 50% | 3Bet: 20% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 6.7% | Hands: 28]
CO ($126.59) [VPIP: 18.8% | PFR: 6.3% | AGG: 71.4% | Hands: 17]

Dealt to Hero: K♣ 6♣

CO Folds, HERO Raises To $5, SB Folds, BB Calls $3

Hero SPR on Flop: [17.73 effective]
Flop ($11): Q♦ 6♠ 7♣
BB Checks, HERO Checks

Turn ($11): Q♦ 6♠ 7♣ K♠
BB Checks, HERO Bets $10.45 (Rem. Stack: $186.55), BB Calls $10.45 (Rem. Stack: $184.55)

River ($31.90): Q♦ 6♠ 7♣ K♠ 9♠
BB Checks, HERO Bets $10 (Rem. Stack: $176.55), BB Raises To $50 (Rem. Stack: $134.55), HERO Calls $40 (Rem. Stack: $136.55)