Is my expected value positive here?
I lost $10 here but I feel like my expected value is positive since each call gave me good odds. Does this make sense?
NL Holdem 0.1(BB)
CO ($13.49) [VPIP: 17.5% | PFR: 12.3% | AGG: 38.5% | Hands: 57]
BTN ($9.45) [VPIP: 68.3% | PFR: 25.4% | AGG: 51.3% | Flop Agg: 58.8% | Turn Agg: 56.5% | River Agg: 38.9% | 3Bet: 9.5% | 4Bet: 50% | Cold Call: 47.8% | Hands: 63]
SB ($10.90) [VPIP: 25% | PFR: 12.5% | AGG: 44.4% | Flop Agg: 66.7% | Turn Agg: 33.3% | River Agg: 33.3% | 3Bet: 25% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 25% | Hands: 8]
HERO ($17.86) [VPIP: 25.7% | PFR: 19.9% | AGG: 48.6% | Flop Agg: 57.4% | Turn Agg: 43% | River Agg: 41% | 3Bet: 10.1% | 4Bet: 5.9% | Cold Call: 11.7% | Hands: 2176]
UTG ($15.16) [VPIP: 27.3% | PFR: 19.5% | AGG: 20.5% | Flop Agg: 11.1% | Turn Agg: 30% | River Agg: 37.5% | 3Bet: 13.8% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 77]
HJ ($11.05) [VPIP: 36.6% | PFR: 11.6% | AGG: 16.4% | Flop Agg: 21.9% | Turn Agg: 11.8% | River Agg: 8.3% | 3Bet: 2.4% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 36% | Hands: 114]
Dealt to Hero: Ad 3d
UTG Raises To $0.30, HJ Calls $0.30, CO Folds, BTN Calls $0.30, SB Calls $0.25, HERO Calls $0.20
Hero SPR on Flop: [6.1 effective]
Flop ($1.50): 2h 9d Qd
SB Checks, HERO Bets $0.70 (Rem. Stack: $16.86), UTG Calls $0.70 (Rem. Stack: $14.16), HJ Folds, BTN Folds, SB Raises To $3.55 (Rem. Stack: $7.05), HERO Calls $2.85 (Rem. Stack: $14.01), UTG Folds
Turn ($9.30): 2h 9d Qd 2c
SB Bets $2.86 (Rem. Stack: $4.19), HERO Calls $2.86 (Rem. Stack: $11.15)
River ($15.02): 2h 9d Qd 2c 3s
SB Bets $4.19 (allin), HERO Calls $4.19 (Rem. Stack: $6.96)
SB shows: 9c 9h
SB wins: $21.89
3 Replies
I don't think you should lead flop: your interest is to grow the pot after you hit your draw. If you bet now, you give someone the opportunity to raise. If you check, someone bets and other call before it's your turn again, you have the option to call with super good odds.
If there were less people involved, for example vs BTN, trying to get all-in on the flop is I think better because BTN will play for stacks with like J8dd or 8Tdd etc etc But in a multiway pot you have more risks someone wakes up with Q9 or a set.
On the river, very unlikely your opponent is bluffing for less than 1/3 pot.
Hide the results in the hands you post, you will get less tainted answers.
Preflop is fine. On the flop I don’t like leading out multi-way like that, especially with the PF aggressor acting after you. Just check it and see what happens. If UTG bets and everyone folds back to you, I might consider a check/raise as a bluff here, but be aware that UTG raised and bet into a multi-way pot. His range is strong. It might be best to just check/call flop.
On the turn, you are getting better than 4:1 needed to call a flush draw, but with a paired board you probably need to get better than 4:1 to account for all the times you will hit your flush draw and lose to a boat. How much more? Not sure, but here you are only getting a bit more than 4:1 (about 4.25:1). You do have some implied odds here, so that probably tips it to call, but it is closer than it might appear.
River is an easy fold. Villain will have very few pure bluffs after his line. You don’t normally bluff into multi-way pots like that, especially with a UTG PF raiser. Your pair of threes will rarely be good; easy fold.
Don't bet MW with this hand. This is a hand you want to sit back and allow others to bet and build good odds for you since there's a truckload of people in the pot. As played, even w/ sick odds, river is an exploitable fold at these stakes. This guy isn't raising the flop MW with nothing or a draw.
Also, most important point... you should export your hand history in 2+2 format so it's easier to read. 😀 It's one of the export options in DH2.
