bluffcatch vs C-B-B?
200nl on Global
100bb deep
Hero has 8♦7♣
Hero (SB) opens 3bb, BB (reg) calls
Flop (6bb) J♠9♠2♥
Hero bets 1.8bb, BB calls
Turn (9.6bb) J♠9♠2♥7♥
Hero checks, BB bets 3bb, Hero calls
River (15.6bb) J♠9♠2♥7♥5♣
Hero checks, BB bets 11.7bb, Hero ?
XR seems reasonable as well
1 Reply
Both call/xr are 0 EV in a solver but they are 33 weak here overall and only need to be 30 weak so calling is definitely profitable. The question really becomes, what is more profitable, raising or calling?
Calling EV. 3%(11.7+11.7+15.6) = We gain 1.17BB on call
Raising EV. Let's say we raise 3.5x.
40.95/40.95+11.7+15.6 = 60% = Alpha
You need him to fold 60% of the time. I have only 727 samples here but the discrepancy is huge so let's put it in the calculator.
12%(40.95+11.7+15.6) = 8.19BB we gain on raising
Verdict: Clear Raise
