Awkward.... BB call down BU

Would fold river. UTG is strong, triple barrel is strong, overbet is probably strong

Yeah snap fold

i fold he has Kx club or a set

Hesitated because his general story seemed incongruent. Not sure how I should be reading the A♣ blocker.

But if clear line muck no need to go there.

Seems congruent to me haha.

Definitely good to have A♣ since they'd have to be bluffing with top pair (AcTx or AcQx which regs probably miss) to counter the huge value removal.

Yea pretty sure villain needs to be turning some hands into bluffs here in order for us to call.

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I'd probably fold. There's a lot of value hands for UTG that you lose to, and the river bet size looks a little weird.

Most players won't overbet the river without a flush. Most players won't bet big on the flop with Kx. He might overbet the turn with a flush draw. There aren't very many possible flushes if he is tightish. Etc.

I think that our Ac is so powerful that we have to call. I am normally terrified by this line, but he is repping somewhat thin and got back-to-back scare cards to motivate him to spew.

See, when i got to this spot there was a little unguarded voice in my mind calling me a nit.

UTG say:
Flop, I have AK/set
Turn, ah good my straight came in
River, er no, I meant my flush. At last.

I did fold btw so this isn't me trying to play gotcha. Just seems like we're saying UTG is bad and clever at the same time. KK makes sense, but three strong fearless streets with 2p seems more of a stretch. Not saying you don't see it but >30% on a flush/straight complete runout idk

Q♣T♣, K♣ T♣ would be logical and tie the theories together. I might play some of my weaker FDs like this. But if I'm good enough to bet/bet/OB I'm probably good enough to check a lot of them on the turn too (and have river bluffs)

but then we want him to have A♣ again. argggghhh

Plausible hands with this line - KK,AA,66,AK,QT,AJ,flushes, not sure what he does with KJ here. He really has very few bluffs on the river, and frankly at 25NL I don't think he's turning KQ into a bluff or something along those lines so the river is an easy fold.

How bad is jamming river?

Want to be a bit deeper I think.

GTOw likes donk jamming AQ/AT with A♣. I doubt enough humans fold sets though

I have micro regs IP B-B-B exactly GTO, so vs a competent player I dont' think this is the worst hero in the world. Argument for overfodling nearly all river bet lines, particularly vs EP, is vivid too

Doubt jamming that bad. He's probably meant to fold sets here vs population. And I'd he is reasonably balanced he'll have like 40% autofolds. So basically if he ever starts folding 2pair/sets we breakeven vs fold

Pretty clear fold. Lot's of reasons to feel good about this fold.