100NL - Pocket 10s turned into a bluff
I donÂ’t have access to GTOWizard so would love for someone to check if this is solver approved.
Or if you have thoughts or comments would be appreciated!
Hand: https://s.pokerbros.net/?t=l52qv2fr002en
Assume no info on villain
5 handed
Hero dealt 10h 10s
Preflop
CO raises to 2.5
Hero (BTN) 3 bets to 8
BB 4 bets to 16
Hero calls
CO folds
Flop 3s 9h 2s (pot $35)
SB bets 23
Hero calls
Turn 5s (pot $82)
SB bets 40
Hero calls
River 4h (pot $163)
SB checks
Hero all-in 138
Spoiler
My thoughts is that VÂ’s light 4b range is pretty capped to a few hands of Axs, AKo, JJ+.
Called flop, was planning to fold some turns esp high broadway.
Turned a flush draw. Villain kept firing. At this point, I think either V more likely has JJ+, a made hand with AKs or AQs, or an Ace high flush draw. ItÂ’s possible V has a couple combos AKo with ace of spades.
River checks. To me, this check does not feel like V had a flush on the turn. Most likely bet for value given board texture. So that leaves JJ/QQ/KK/AA/AKo. Im not beating any of those hands at this point.
24 combos of overpairs that would likely fold given a jam.
9 combos of AA/AKo that would maybe sigh-call straight.
10 Replies
Imo it makes sense if villain is a reg, he would fold TT-QQ and probably call with KK and Ax. Villain being a fish he would call with all overpairs without a second thought.
I think people don't give up KK so easily, they might fold sometimes but not always, specially considering that your shove is less than pot.
(Not going to look at the spoiler until after I post this)
Villain's cold-4bet range is probably going to be something like JJ+, AK (possibly AQs)
I'm not sure what your shove on the river achieves against that range. You're already beating his give-ups with AK/AQ.
He's unlikely to fold the JJ+ and is just checking in order to pick off your bluffs.
What's the target here? Either the better hand that folds or the worse hand that calls?
Seems good, TT-KK probably snap fold, straights probably never fold but maybe they should.
I'd jam 6x/flushes but might go pretty small with Ax. Might be a more efficient bluff sizing.
Not gonna look at Wizard since their cold 4b range will be fairly different, and their sizing is horrible this deep. You have a good amount of value here, no SDV and I don't see you getting to river with worse so TT should definitely bluff in theory. I would expect OOP to be overfolding relative to MDF although it's probably not as extreme as if river SPR was lower.
SB is certainly some kind of fish after preflop and flop, and they mostly don't 4b bluff in my experience, let alone cold 4b bluff. They're probably just calling here way too much for you to do this if I had to guess.
I would expect them to have KK/AA, and the occasional AKs/QQ. Leaning toward the pairs after the massive flop bet.
I would fold flop vs 2/3.
River seem ok.
Thanks guys/gals.
Results below
Spoiler
Villain showed that he mucked KK (fairly fast ~4-5s)
Said in chat:
Bad runout for me
