Two idiots fight over a boat

I would just never bluff here honestly. Heart doesn't matter since flush draws aren't strong.

Yes good point

I thought this one was somewhat unique given there's such a low possibility of quads (quips?) and of course villain's XR reps sweet fa

Maybe 3B to 26bb looks more like you milking him and then all in otr with worse odds for opponent. But I would only go for this play when tilted.

Not sure, the c/r min-click looks strong to me. A8o and A8s are all in BB's range, no? Plus three combos of A3s, K3s and 43s, maybe 53s? Around 15 combos in total. There could also be some pocket pair. Any stats on villain? Do you think they fold any boat if you bomb river?

Even 15 combos is quite small relative to range. I think high % of 3x XR flop. Or XR larger on turn when we're face-up. But who knows.

No stats, don't use em. Vast majority of 10nlz players are generic half-fish reg types so could go either way but I expect most reg-types to not play like this and most fish to massively overplay these novel boat flops with lower PP. Flipside of course they overvalue and overcall merged so FE is probably way too low for shenanigans like this if you locked a solver.

I need to do more research though because frankly i have no idea.

Why would you think that?

People are overcalling in the BB, so villain has plenty of 3x in their range.

Lol. 95% of my punts emanate from some kind of egoic nonsense if I'm honest. But when you tear off the mask it mostly boils down to me being annoyed at not knowing the answer well enough.

Punt and post, that's my new motto.

Relative to overall range that likes to get dicey in prime dicey spot though? Or is that overthink?

Looking at gtow...

FLOP: Supposed to mostly bet larger but small is fine. Majority of BB’s 3x XR here of course

TURN: Solver actually likes big **** off 250x OBs with wide variety of hands including some QJo. But any bet’ll do

VS XR: 3betting ~10% with lower showdown broadways that block some 3x, including this combo specifically unblocking ♥. AHA, so it does matter. Whhhhy??

Not saying this validates my play @ 10nlz, but it is a reference point.

Do you see a lot of players spazzing out in spots like this? There are a few, for sure, but those are quickly identified, I find.

I've never had any luck bluffing boat boards @ micros

There's probably a lesson in there somewhere

I think on a turn like this bad players will have way too much crap in their X/clickback range on average yeah. They'll use way too much 8x and lower PPs that all our OPs can butcher with the 3bet.

But I think the main issue is whether they actually fold any of that to the 3b. If only there was some kind of maxim or rule that could help us out here....

Over complicating relatively simple spot. Tunr min raise is super nutted so standard play is just to fold.

Yeah he doesn't have that many 3x but if he plays most of them in this line you are looking at 3x a lot. Also it's not clear what to do otr if he calls, so often when you try these fancy plays you end up losing a stack instead 7bb.

Turn x minraise is super strong. Bluffing random cards on a board with trips is generally bad.

Since folding to the x/r on the turn can't really be bad, I think it's less costly to just do that and check the solver after the hand. Rather than going for a very sophisticared and dubious line against a fish, and then check in the solver if it miraculously made sense.

I think it chooses combos unblocking hearts because BB has an incentive to bluff with hearts because as you can see you have to call a lot of Ax hands and they can outdraw those hands if they hit their flush. A flush is not a very strong hand on this board, but it's not garbage.

I am not too sure and the way I will write it is a bit ridiculous but oh well: it uses QJo has a bluff because it almost pure raises QQ and JJ. I noticed already the solver in some spots behaves like if having QJ is like having QQ or JJ... with low frequency (not those combos specifically, but the general idea that XY blocks XX and YY)

Disclaimer: it's very likely I just spent 5 minutes writing complete nonsense.

I only see one idiot so far

haha, bobby! hope you are good squire

I try to ask myself 3 questions when deciding if I should bluff. I think it helps me find good spots and not be too passive, while at the same time, keeping me in check and not punting too much.

1. Is this spot overfolded?
2. Do I have the nut advantage?
3. Is villain capped?

#1 is the most important, and the more confident I am that the answer is "Yes", the more likely I am to overbluff.

In this hand

1. I have no idea if this spot is overfolded after they XR
2. Maybe this is close depending on how they play their 3x OTF
3. Villain probably isn't capped after they XR

All that added up would make me fold to the XR.

Thanks ceres, same to you. I get a kick out of your sharp wit. It is definitely appreciated by me just so you know.

What end up happening? He went all-in and you folded(my prediction)

4. Do I have clean outs if called?

But ya... There's a lot of no's in this particular hand.

Close...

PokerStars - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 118.6 BB
SB: 187.2 BB
BB: 308.8 BB
UTG: 128.4 BB
MP: 101 BB
CO: 100.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J♣ Q♦

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (6.5 BB, 2 players) 3♠ 3♦ 3♥
BB checks, Hero bets 2 BB, BB calls 2 BB

Turn: (10.5 BB, 2 players) 8♥
BB checks, Hero bets 6.7 BB, BB raises to 13.4 BB, Hero raises to 35 BB, BB calls 21.6 BB

River: (80.5 BB, 2 players) T♣
BB bets 38.5 BB, fold

BB wins 76.9 BB

saved me torching 80bb tbf