Should I Bluff on this River?
GG Poker - $0.05 Ante $0.02 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
MP+1: 207 BB
MP+2: 200 BB
CO: 196.4 BB
BTN: 200 BB
Hero (SB): 200 BB
BB: 282.8 BB
UTG: 311.4 BB
UTG+1: 245.8 BB
MP: 376 BB
9 players post ante of 0.4 BB, Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB, MP+2 posts penalty blind 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 6 BB) Hero has Q♣ K♥
fold, fold, MP calls 1 BB, MP+1 raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 2.6 BB, fold, MP calls 2 BB
Flop: (14.6 BB, 3 players) J♣ 8♣ T♦
Hero checks, MP checks, MP+1 bets 5.2 BB, Hero calls 5.2 BB, MP calls 5.2 BB
Turn: (30.2 BB, 3 players) T♣
Hero checks, MP checks, MP+1 checks
River: (30.2 BB, 3 players) J♦
Hero ?
I am near the bottom of my range (no showdownvalue) and block some Jx Tx combos. I can get folds from Overpairs, Str8s and Flushs. Should I bluff this river and if yes, with what sizing?
4 Replies
If I would bluff, I would bluff using the same amount as I'd value bet with Jx. Around pot size.
I tried a bit with flopzilla and, assuming that both players fold straights-, I come up with an approximate fold probability of 0.7 x 0.5 = 0.35. Given that my sizing should be around half pot.
I think 3bet pre is slightly higher EV than call but believe that both will be winning; if you are not well studied in multi way pots I would much prefer to try and get this heads up.
Flop I like; it's tempting to raise but when most of our EV comes from the rec; the EV of call probably goes way up.
Being that most recs are going to call far too wide on the river and not over fold; I will adjust my strategy to just betting a linear range on the river and not worry about betting polar. We don't need bluffs here; just give up.
I think you played the hand well. I am not bluffing river.
