[MID] Nut flush vs. 3-bet all-in on the river

Yeah nobody really bluffs here as BB but you have the nuts unless he makes a big mistake pre

Flop is a bet the majority of the time, curious why you checked? KcQc would be a more appropriate xb here.

Pretty sure we need to go bigger otr despite BBs big sizing to begin with, but also feel like we're raising otr with 8 combos of KcXc and only need to defend with ~40% of our range (3ish combos), so that would be Kc4c, Kc5c and then more if we think villain ever bluffs. Doesn't seem like the worst fold...

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Sucky spot tbh when 54s is the most likely hand to show up from a reg. Against a fish it could be any flush and other worse hands.

do u think V’s capable of turning J4/T4/J5/T5cc into 3b bluffs?

I don’t think we can fold because literally one combo has us beat. Even a reg will bluff at some nonzero frequency here. Sure he might show up with the SF, but can we really fold the nut flush? That would make us super exploitable wouldn’t it?

Yes it would, but all expolotative lines are themselves expolitable. I think striving to play unexploitable GTO in a spot like this isn't the right approach.

If we fold because we think villain never bluffs or takes this line with worse for value and are correct in that assumption, then we're the one owning him not the other way round.

- BB does not generally have many 54s in the BB - which means he theoretically should reach the flop with a small fraction of 54s, let alone the line taken to the river
- I suspect straight flush will likely either bet turn or XR turn to try GII, which discounts the #combos even further
- Been playing HU a bunch on MS+ and I suspect competent opponents are unlikely to take the line of probe 50p ott and 100p otr. If he has 54cc, he unblocks virtually every big hand that would bet themselves when check to or would raise if you block the river, which is a frequent sizing used on this runout.

The considerations above are the main theoretical variables but they are no substitute for player profile or in game reads/tells

- When you play a bunch of hands with him before the fish got stacked, you can observe how he plays and profile him accordingly - how aggressive is he, has he been OOL at all when you played together? Does he start applying pressure after opponents show weakness?

These should serve as the anchor points for your decision. If you have the time, scroll back a bunch and look for showdowns or where V won a pot without sd and look at what happened?

- If you fold all your nut flushes here, massive ev gain if you're right that he never bluffs, but the inverse is also true where if he overbluffs, which is extremely easy thing to do since he shouldn't arrive otr with that many SF combos
- Alternatively, you can basically try call your value raises which blocks the straight flush like K4cc K5cc, maybe Q4/Q5cc if you raise that otr, but considering the line taken as well, it shouldn't happen that frequently.

Fun spot thanks for sharing

Easy call when only 1 combo beats us. Especially when said combo should be 3bet off sometimes pre and bet bigger on the turn. Its too thin for him to be shoving a Q high flush here, but I think you thats what you will see more than half the time here - it is only 4NL after all