nuts on the turn, bluffcatcher on the river

Meh, i'm calling my straights. Occasionally lose to 33 or rando but still too high up to fold imo

I'd consider OBing (b125) the turn too vs a station

It's annoying, but we're still ahead of Qx in the fish range, so I call.

sigh call, but honestly wouldn't blame you that much if you folded.

33/22 is generally not the type of fish who doesn't understand hand value.

You need to beat 40% of his range just to have 0 ev call. Give the read he only playes value like this, you probably don't beat any value, so this is a fold imo.

It crossed my mind but I try to keep it simple and not deviate too much from what I *think* is the standard play. I assumed normal bet was standard there, although it might be completely wrong!

OK, thanks! In game I folded, I thought they would have raised a straight on the turn and would not donkbet 3x pot with a single Q. And if they bluffed me, good for them.

Yeah, this is a straight forward fold. You made the right play. It's honestly not really even close. If this guy wanted to bluff, he could have bet pot of double pot. These guys aren't shoving w/ less than a FH here often enough to make this call profitable.

So apparently small stakes players won't bluff w/ 4 straight boards, but they will overshove w/ bluffs (and value??? ? ? because the board is paired). I've found no data in my lifetime to back any of these conclusions up.

I would say this is always a FH. Also would overbet the turn a lot here.

Hey don't listen to me I'm just a fish!!

I understand the base equation that our pot odds deny calling but there is a converse too where if we start overfolding to the point we only call boats their Qx, of which they have just as many if not more in range, overprints vs us. It all boils down to his jam range, because its very existence suggests quite a weak player, and that weakness could stretch to seriously overvaluing trips in a dopamergic thrill.

On balance. I think it boils down to timing tells. If he snap jams river it's more likely to be Qx, but if he tanks it's because he's scheme tanking. Follow the energy distribution.

10/10 post

It was a snap jam

You're not a fish, but this would be a bad call.

Timing tells online... I just wouldn't put much stock in them. I've seen plenty of people snap jam value/nuts because they already knew what they were going to do on the previous street.

I’m not sure if the biggest whales would donk jam 4x pot here with trips or some random bluff.