200NL - Jam v. Fish Triple

If you had AA or KK would you be betting that flop and turn? If you had 88 AJ or KJ would you be check calling the flop and turn?

No.
Yes.

At least at a super high frequency. I would probably almost always check everything that can continue against a bet, and cbet hands that have to x/f.

They're IP so a lot less merges and fish will call some of those

You have a good bluff catcher just call

Seems contradictory to call flop and turn because villain is airballing and then jam river because they are merging.

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The problem with jamming is that it's competing against a line that is already highly +EV in call. In order for jamming to be more +EV than calling, we need way more fold equity than the breakeven point.

It's possible that we might have this much fold equity since fish tend to be quite transparent with their sizing and I would expect Jx+ to be rare (although not impossible). My main fear is that the described player type (aggro whale) tend to be quite volatile and stationy so you might get looked up by 8x anyway.

I think I like just calling best.

Since you tagged him as fish/whale we don't need to think about balancing we should just maximaxe this hand.

I doubt very much that fish will fold better hands if we stay passiv to the river and then suddenly jam. They tend to call here.

I just call the river, given the board and so many possible bluffs in his range.

If they're an aggro fish, there's potentially 100+ combos of bluffs we beat.

Sure it sucks when we call and lose to 54s, but it sucks even more when we jam and get called by 54s.

MDA show's us Fish X more value back OTR than they should after showing 2 streets of aggression. Which incentivizes us to call with our bluff catchers when they are IP.

Seems unlikely to knock out an aggro/whale's weaker PPs when they're so invested.

I personally never try and bluff aggro whales, ever. Apart from the hands I post here and the other times.

It felt pretty close so I didn't really mind it, but probably best to take the showdown.

Considering the read, it looks like call > fold > CRAI. On the psychology side, these kinds of aggro/whales get a rush from calling big pots, so they find reasons to call down slim, because if they catch a bluff, they are on a gambooool high all day.

I don't think jam is worse than folding since they only need to fold 60% of the time, but yeah I think they're probably just overbluffing enough to make fold or jam worse than calling. Thx.

Most fish will be very happy to bluff catch on this type of bricky runout, if he is trype to bet 8x.

For me this is either call or fold. Mostly calling.