[NL5] To bet or not to bet?
$5 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
SB: 92.58 BB (VPIP: 47.83, PFR: 18.18, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 23)
BB: 165.98 BB (VPIP: 14.22, PFR: 5.21, 3Bet Preflop: 4.49, Hands: 212)
UTG: 184.86 BB (VPIP: 16.44, PFR: 13.33, 3Bet Preflop: 7.92, Hands: 912)
CO: 218.06 BB (VPIP: 64.00, PFR: 45.00, 3Bet Preflop: 16.13, Hands: 100)
Hero (BTN): 101 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J♥ K♣
fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, SB calls 2 BB, fold
Flop: (6 BB, 2 players) 5♦ J♣ 6♣
SB checks, Hero bets 3.96 BB, SB raises to 7.92 BB, Hero calls 3.96 BB
Turn: (21.84 BB, 2 players) K♠
SB bets 10.92 BB, Hero raises to 40.94 BB, SB calls 30.02 BB
River: (103.72 BB, 2 players) 3♦
SB checks,Hero - ?
Hero mucks J♥ K♣ (Two Pair, Kings and Jacks)
(Pre 47%, Flop 5%, Turn 9%)
SB shows 6♥ 6♦ (Three of a Kind, Sixes)
(Pre 53%, Flop 95%, Turn 91%)
SB wins 178.72 BB
Do we have a value bet here? Draws missed, apart from 47. There should be all other 2 pairs we beat.
5 Replies
Personally I think I'm just calling the turn. If his x/r range on the flop is something like sets, 65 and draws then the only thing the K on the turn changes is we now beat 65, but that's presumably just folding to a raise. I like calling and then calling a river bet unless it's the worst card possible like 4♣ or 9♣.
As played I think I just check back. We're not getting any more value out of his draws and 56 probably folded the turn.
When a rec starts check raising and barreling I'm going to play very passive as they will be very value heavy; just calling the turn.
As played river just checking back, we can only really get called by 56 2 combos and Kx clubs; he can still have all 66 and 55 so I'm just checking back
It's only around 40bb to jam, but still feels super thin even against a fish. It's going to be hard to get called by worse hands often enough.
You don't have to raise turn to get max value of the fish given you're IP, doing so and jamming river you just value cut yourself. XR-B-B by fish may be overbluffed depending on the sizing he uses on the river + we can always reopen if he checks. I wouldn't have a raising range vs the fish on the turn.
I wouldn't raise turn here. As played I would check back the river as its too thin, I think you only get called by the sets
