Cooler or baluga theorem type spot?
Thought i could give him some combos of JJ, TT, KdJd, JdTd, AdKd, but maybe this is being too optimistic. AdKd would 4bet, the other diamond combos probably fold flop. Idk if JJ or TT ever raise here. Idk.
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software
NL Holdem 0.1(BB)
HERO (105.2BBs) [VPIP: 21.1% | PFR: 18% | AGG: 38.7% | Flop Agg: 45.9% | Turn Agg: 38% | River Agg: 31.5% | 3Bet: 8.7% | Fold to 3Bet: 54.8% | 4Bet: 10.5% | Hands: 79121]
SB (238BBs) [VPIP: 37% | PFR: 3.7% | AGG: 35.7% | Hands: 27]
BB (116.9BBs) [VPIP: 33.3% | PFR: 29.6% | AGG: 30% | Hands: 27]
UTG (102.9BBs) [VPIP: 30.8% | PFR: 11.5% | AGG: 40% | Hands: 27]
HJ (52.7BBs) [VPIP: 29.6% | PFR: 18.5% | AGG: 46.2% | Hands: 27]
CO (145.2BBs) [VPIP: 40.7% | PFR: 25.9% | AGG: 26.7% | Flop Agg: 28.6% | Turn Agg: 25% | River Agg: 33.3% | 3Bet: 10% | 4Bet: 33.3% | Hands: 27]
Dealt to Hero: Q♦ Q♣
UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Raises To 4.5BBs, HERO Raises To 12BBs, SB Folds, BB Folds, CO Calls 7.5BBs
Hero SPR on Flop: [3.65 effective]
Flop (25.5BBs): 4♣ 8♠ 3♦
CO Checks, HERO Bets 8BBs (Rem. Stack: 85.2BBs), CO Calls 8BBs (Rem. Stack: 125.2BBs)
Turn (41.5BBs): 4♣ 8♠ 3♦ 9♦
CO Checks, HERO Bets 19.8BBs (Rem. Stack: 65.4BBs), CO Raises To 46.2BBs (Rem. Stack: 79BBs), HERO Raises To 85.2BBs (allin), CO Calls 39BBs (Rem. Stack: 40BBs)
River (211.9BBs): 4♣ 8♠ 3♦ 9♦ T♥
2 Replies
I think you can go full Baluga here vs a 40% VPIP guy. Someone like this is going to have more hands in his range like 88/99/89. Don't think JJ/TT play often enough like this by this kind of player, but it's also not completely out of their range. Past that, there's not a ton of diamond draws that make sense w/ you having Qd. So you have AdJd/AdTd, probably JdTd over folds on the flop. I'm making some player assumptions here. 😀 It looks like a fold on the whole. If he XRAI, I'd probably add significantly more draws in his range, than this small turn XR range. The size of this turn XR is what makes my primarily want to exploit fold.
I think almost everyone is going to jam their bluffs and not make a tiny raise. I'd expect to see 99 really often.
