River dilemma with the maybe nuts

Since villain 4 bet pre; safe to assume upper range hands like QQ, 1010, AQh, AQx, A10h, A10d, even A8h. KJ suited also in play.

Then again villains usually just check call with the nuts. So that turn raise by villain maybe discounts a boat?

Tough spot. Just wondering if anyone advocates for a check call scenario? This could be one of those times depending on villainÂ’s tendencies of course.

So they check AAQ flop? Mhhhh...

I'm not raising turn, as played I check river and probably fold (depending on the size).

Do you normally raise turns super small like this? It's maybe worth a small block on the river.

Just probe turn/bet river. You want to be careful when your opponent's check back a range bet spot.

Size of turn bet put me in small mode. I was ranging him something like KK, JJ, FDs, QJs type hands. Condensed but forced to call. And I didn't want to let them off the hook.

All of that is absolutely buggered on the river though because now he has no calling hands. Betting small feels like a white flag.

I've plugged to spot in the solver because I find villain's line really suspicious: the only hand it checks significantly is AA, almost half the time, and then it balances with a tiny fraction of many of the other hands.

But OK, it's unlikely our random villain plays like a solver. Personally I would have find the rangebet except AA which I check 100% of the time and I never check any other hand (obviously super bad in theory, if you know my "strategy" you know my hand when I check!).

So, I have a small piece of the solution for you: if your villain was me, check/fold river!

I’m pretty sure as a general rule you’re supposed to use bigger sizes against that type of range, and smaller sizes against polar ranges.

go big but non AI, and fold to jam.

Ceres I hope you will post the results for this one, someday

Today?

BTN: 101.4 BB
SB: 114.4 BB
BB: 102.6 BB
UTG: 109.6 BB
MP: 91 BB
Hero (CO): 117.8 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has K♣ J♣

fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BTN raises to 7.8 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 4.8 BB

Flop: (17 BB, 2 players) A♠ A♣ Q♦
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: (17 BB, 2 players) T♣
Hero checks, BTN bets 5.4 BB, Hero raises to 18 BB, BTN calls 12.6 BB

River: (53 BB, 2 players) 8♦
Hero bets 35 BB, BTN raises to 75.6 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 40.6 BB

BTN shows Q♠ A♦ (Full House, Aces full of Queens)
(Pre 59%, Flop 99.9%, Turn 98%)
Hero shows K♣ J♣ (Straight, Ace High)
(Pre 41%, Flop 0.1%, Turn 2%)
BTN wins 195.8 BB

- I think curiosity tilt got the better of me. Upon reflection, probably best not to wonder about anything

Thanks, too bad you did not bink Qc on the river

crying fold on the river, dont think this spot is bluffed very much.

i honestly dont like this turn x/r at all. either probe or x/c to keep his range uncapped. he x/bk a 100% 1/3 cb spot too. which is sus and makes me not like the turn x/r even more. the only hand is like KK that might take this line and x/bk flop bet turn but we block it so it sucks all around.

been there, thats a rough one to beat some days. I usually take a day off especially if i catch myself do it.