Bottom set facing river bet when everything got there
Villain is a reg, 20/17 over 551 hands. Funnily enough though, I have no history with him or notes on him whatsoever. Which is weird because I'll take a note after any big pot vs a reg, and I'll also mark them a certain colour if they ever get caught bluffing in a big pot or taking a weird line etc. The fact I have no notes on him after over 500 hands together makes me think he plays super straightforward ABC poker.
When he checkraises the turn I'm giving him a range of sets (77 or 33), spades, 46, 86, maybe something like a pair & gutshot and maaybe something whacky like Q3s if he even defends with that pre.
On the river when the FD gets there, I just can't see him value betting this big with his two pair or even his 33. I also don't see your typical 10nl reg making a big river bluff with something like 76 or 78 here, especially when I have a bunch of flushes in my range. That being said, it's 10nl and maybe he doesn't know that I'm competent and is just value betting super wide because it's 10nl and people can't fold TPTK.
So... anyone ever folding a set here or can we call and just chalk it up to a cooler if we're beat?
PokerStars Zoom, Hold'em No Limit - $0.05/$0.10 - 6 players
Hand delivered by Pokeit
UTG: $10.00 (100 bb)
MP: $13.11 (131 bb)
CO (Hero): $10.28 (103 bb)
BU: $10.78 (108 bb)
SB: $10.16 (102 bb)
BB: $10.00 (100 bb)
Pre-Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with 5♦ 5♠
2 players fold, Hero raises to $0.25, 2 players fold, BB calls $0.15
Flop: ($0.55) 7♠ 5♥ Q♦ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.17, BB calls $0.17
Turn: ($0.89) 3♠ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.56, BB raises to $1.70, Hero calls $1.14
River: ($4.29) 9♠ (2 players)
BB bets $3.08, Hero ?????
3 Replies
I think it's foldable. He has to be turning some weird/mergey stuff into a bluff
If we're going to fold sets then fourth set vs a flush/straight completed board is going to be in that category you'd think
I don't think they ever have QQ or 99, so we don't have fourth set but second one.
33 would be a pretty loose call on the flop, unfortunately we have to discount it.
Annoying that they bet 3/4pot when the flush comes in.
You block As5s
I think maybe you can shove sometime to move them off a straight?!? (good luck!)
I'd prefer facing a more aggressive opponent who's capable of bluffing occasionally when I make the call.
We might expect hands like 33, Q7s, or 53s, but I'm skeptical that all of these would be played this way on this board.
Therefore, folding seems reasonable against this type of player.
