50NL StarsNJ - Top Set vs Overjam on Wet Flop
PokerStars - $0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BTN: 102 BB (VPIP: 19.08, PFR: 16.16, 3Bet Preflop: 5.59, Hands: 989)
SB: 99.64 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 16)
Hero (BB): 120.16 BB
UTG: 116.92 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 13.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
MP: 129.28 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 75.00, 3Bet Preflop: 100.00, Hands: 4)
CO: 192.5 BB (VPIP: 26.26, PFR: 21.21, 3Bet Preflop: 14.47, Hands: 206)
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J♦ J♠
UTG calls 1 BB, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to 6 BB, Hero raises to 18 BB, fold, SB calls 12 BB
Flop: (37 BB, 2 players) 8♣ J♣ T♣
SB checks, Hero bets 9.8 BB, SB raises to 81.64 BB and is all-in, Hero ??
Results & Thoughts
Spoiler
fold
SB wins 53.76 BB
Talked with a buddy who said my fold was ultra nitty and big blunder as Villain, who has a bit fishy stats (not much history tho) has lots of AQc AJc QQc type jams here, plus still have lots of equity vs a flush with any board pair. Curious how bad I played it. IMO fish-esq villains at these stakes also overjam value here, so I think we see a lot of made flushes.
6 Replies
Normaly this is a spot where i could see the solver checking alot villain hits this board great and also he should find alot of donks here if he does not find them we should check even more frequent because his range is then even stronger. All this is theoretical thinking so how range vs range interacts on this board + considering stack to pot ratio + positions but in reality villain will not be able to tell wich strategy we use so i would bet this hand and check alot of marginal hands back.
You want to get the money in vs QQ TT 88 etc asap if he has a flush wich there are only 2-4 realistic combos we anyway have decent eq so easy bet call.
You was probably focusing in to much on the things that beat you wich is normal for our brain to focus on worst case szenario but this leads to non rational decision making. I recommend to ask yourself questions like does villain have worser hands for value here? how much eq do i have when i am behind etc.
Great feedback. Yeah when I actually try and find flush combos,the board blocks most of the obvious candidates so you're right. Putting in like QQc 99c TT 88 AQcc KQcc A9cc K9cc Q9cc 97cc I'm still like a 60% favorite it looks like.
fold is AIDS
you have direct odds vs the nut flush
You don't need to be a favorite to call, you're being laid 35% odds
I am a turbo nit 😭
damn you been through some horrific coolers in your time huh. terrible fold but if it makes you feel better he had it that time probably
