As Played.. What the **** do I do?

I would be calling, I think he can do this with worse sets (not happy ofc)

Playing on 5% battery is brave

I think it's better to Bet 3/4 on the Turn and Bet/Fold small on this River.

As played, fold on the River.

Where’s your check/raise?! Ott you are up against a range with lots of flush draws and smaller sets. You have the nuts ott but it’s vulnerable. Especially with the deep stacks, you want to build a pot, and the turn is a good place to do it. Plus, if villain still jams after a turn c/r the decision is much easier.

AP you showed weakness on the turn and again with your river check. Villain certainly will have the flush a good bit of the time, but will also have lesser value and bluffs enough of the time to call this IMO.

I'm really interested in how villain should be constructing his turn betting range. I would think he wants to be super polarized mainly checking back his FDs to avoid getting check-raised. However very difficult to find air in villains range after flop call ( maybe AQo but even that has a lot of equity).

In my eyes we could just range bet small on the J( potentially putting our like AA /JJ/ KJ I to a bigger size but that depends on how we construct our 3-bet range from BB) and also maybe it's a little harder to range bet when we're so deep so the nut advantage gets slightly neutralised by AK no longer being the effective nuts ???

I think these 2 questions need answered before deciding on how this hand should be played both on turn and river

KK is a nice candidate IMO for a flop check. After getting called on the flop our range should be barrelling quite a bit so the turn check is a bit weird. I like the turn check raise because we can get called by a lot of worse hands, all his club combos, etc.

I like to live on the edge 😅

Yeah I think I definitely think I messed up the turn, I’ve got the nuts at the moment so thought a check is good to get him to bluff. Unfortunately the worst card in the deck comes on the river but also the best card to bluff for him. The spot could easily have been avoided

I was studying this spot in gto wizard before I played this but I think I got some of the heuristics wrong as we’re meant to check the nuts on the turn but the board is so dynamic I think the check raise was mandatory.
Absolutely agree with you, and I think a lot of his bluffs get there by the river. AQ especially.
He doesn’t have a flush often enough as that would check back the turn.
He showed up with AQ with the A of clubs

Mission success!! Now make him pay

I'm calling the river even though it sucks.

I do not think raising the turn is a good idea though. In practice, I think it is normally pretty bad, When players pick this sizing they have a tendency to follow through on the river with their bluffs and they are representing a polarized range. By raising turn you will get stacks in with their value, but by calling you will keep in their bluffs. If you know they will give up too many bluffs on the river or are very balanced then it can make sense to raise turn at a frequency, but by default I'd be calling because most people are just going to pile it in on the river. If river had come 4 of clubs, I would not be surprised if opponent jams trying to represent the flush. If it comes some other random card you still get money sometimes.

The downside of trapping is sometimes a set doesn't get stacked off if a scary card comes, but I think the payoff is worth it.

I would even be willing to trap with JJ and KJ sometimes, but if I was to develop a raising range, I'd pick those hands first because JJ unblocks more AK and two pairs and KJ is more vulnerable.