QQ bricking life vs likely fish
What's the play here?
Calling turn to fold river seems pointless. So fold turn instead? Or should we call down?
BTN: 128.2 BB
SB: 100 BB
Hero (BB): 163.6 BB
UTG: 167.4 BB
MP: 58.4 BB
CO: 141.4 BB
SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Q♠ Q♦
UTG raises to 2.4 BB, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 2 BB, Hero raises to 14 BB, UTG calls 11.6 BB, fold
Flop: (30.4 BB, 2 players) K♠ 3♦ 6♦
Hero bets 9.6 BB, UTG calls 9.6 BB
Turn: (49.6 BB, 2 players) 4♥
Hero checks, UTG bets 19 BB, Hero calls 19 BB
River: (87.6 BB, 2 players) T♥
Hero checks, UTG bets 48 BB, hero?
8 Replies
You're good like 60% of the time on the river here
I think you'll be good a fair bit of the time. I'm not exactly sure if its break-even or profitable, even a fish will just show you a king a fair chunk of the time. I wouldn't lose sleep over folding here
I'm folding that river. Calling turn only to fold river is not pointless though. Certain hands will bet one street, but give up on another. For instance, a lot of people will bet a flush draw on that turn, but check back on the river. Without any reads, I would be folding because people are going to underbluff this river and you have better hands to call than QQ.
Snap against a fish. Smaller on the flop makes this line better too.
Translation: consider calling
Fish overbluff and bet too merged, and don’t value bet thin enough, so this line is loaded with whiffs and weaker pairs, and not a lot of better hands. Also their sets are going to raise the flop a high % or they would bet bigger on the turn or river, so you just win at a crazy high % here.