Evil 3b flop donk

It is not you have nut FD!

It’s close IMO. To call with the nut FD you must get about 4:1 odds on your call. You only are getting 2:1 direct odds, so you will need villain to put n another 40BB or so after you (hopefully!) hit that draw. Villain is showing strength, but a fourth diamond very likely will slow him down considerably. A pot-sized donk on this flop seems like a strong hand that might be vulnerable to a fourth diamond - Ax, smaller flush, or a set. I’m not sure villain will cooperate often enough and give us the implied odds to call often enough in a spot like this.

It may be a call, and personally I’d find it tough to fold here. But “We have the nut FD” doesn’t make it an automatic call either.

Do you call or raise here?

I was thinking similarly that this is close because it's hard to get value on a 4 flush board. But the other response is from a strong poster so I was second guessing myself. Maybe this is a spot to jam and put pressure on Ax? But a fish seems so likely to call after potting.

He won't fold AxXd, set or weaker flsuh on 4 flush if he is big fish he probably won't even fold Ax.
Sometimes he checks and you get to see free river and/or even win at SD with K high.

Hmm, so I ruled out calling. To me it seems a bit speculative to realise bluffcatching EV from that position. Whereas given the polarisation of the lead, it's more like an equity vs equity/toy-game because a) spr and b) we could both be in the speculative part of range so our BCs can be +EV.

We know they don't have the nuts so they failed one major test. Trouble is I folded so we'll never know what they had now.

This is such a rare spot that you're better off thinking something else even though folding clearly bothers you. It happens, I've wondered over some hands that I folded for years.

It's an interesting hand for sure but it has so many rare things happening simultaneously that spots like these won't repeat often enough to make a dent for your winrate.

Don't overthink it.

I don't think it's overthinking. it's just ...thinking

If you node villain to call that fish range the solver adapts by jamminng 20%(as opposed to 0) and these nut flush combos increase EV by ~1%/pot. Wooo. You might say that's nothing, but this is using tight gto-ish ranges. If we build a model with more oop trash and lol-logic that EV will be amplified again is my guess.

But point being solver logic is to distinctly prefer locking in their speculative hands for three streets against our highest yield drawing hands, presumably because giving free cards to that range gives them too many outs to abandon their reckless plan and cripples our equity realisation. Which is why I'm arguing for jam > call.

Call or jam probably both fine since you're IP. Fold has to be the worst option by far

Why call over jamming?