Roswell was REAL. Aliens are here! Shove river?

No, next question.

Seriously though I think he just as a K an awful lot and figures if you have a 2 or a better boat it's a cooler and clicks call. You're asking for a hero fold here and that's not a good place to be.
He's also uncapped and can have the very few things you're repping.

I think here it is very easy for villain to overbluff this line especially on the K turn (scarecard) and he will not have to many kx stabing the flop so xc xc and on most rivers check calling a high here i think nice play and less variance then attacking a uncapped range. With your line he is supposed to fold some 2x wich is not happening most likley but i like that you try to be more creative and put villain into a tuff spot

Yep I’m misuderstanding gto play. My solver only XRs this turn ~4%. I expected it to be much higher. It is a good turn but alas that still doesn’t give us limitless ammo. Solver donks ~30% instead.

And yes BB has too many Kx I didn’t account for. I wasn’t trying to fold out Kx, i just didn’t comprehend how little of our range wants to play like this when they already rep trips. Our EV jumps on this turn, but it was way behind after the flop XC , so we’re still very limited in bluff power. Whoops... aliens might not exist after all. I retract my original statement.

You don't really have any nut hands and BB can have almost all of them, so that's probably the main reason why it doesn't play raises in this line.

When you XR turn as bluff you mostly do with very strong draws/combo draws if you are using gs you want at least FD blocker so you can bluff when flush gets there.
River is super bad we are over bluffing into range that has close to 0 folds. XR turn as bluff is fine play but in general players wont over fold otr once they call turn raise so you want to be selective both on what rivers you are bluffing and what hands you do it with. This is both bad combo, bad river and bad sizing 😃

But apart from that...?

WP

the silver lining is it's such a terrible line that if your opponent is really really smart he could figure no one in their right mind would bluff

Readless, you're assuming your opponent thinks more than he probably does.

Did he snap with KJo?

Tank called FIVES :'(

As in, 5x or 55 ?

I'm trying to figure out what beats us that calls the turn and folds the river. The range is there, but this is a full house that isn't folding very often. If he tanked, he might not have understood the board.

5♠5♥

A boat did cross my mind when he called turn. But the river seemed too good for my fake boat jam range.
He concluded I was FOS.

Imagine

Every hand in his range is basically a boat. I also would just straight recommend not trying to make people fold boats. Tanking with 55 seems a little ridiculous, though.

55 is well within Villain's range, but it's not definitely a set on the turn. I just don't think a King is folding the turn (and it's never folding the river), while QQ/JJ aren't really in their range. TT and lower pps that missed the board are folding a ton on the turn, too. We're seeing random Kings, 55, random high twos a lot calling the turn.

The guy thinks "this Ceres is crazy, but is he really trying to make me fold a boat?" and spends time processing this (what aner0 says above!)

Yeah, I mean, I guess I would tank too now that I think about it. My internal dialogue would effectively be, "what the **** does this guy have?"

My first thought when I looked at the hand was "well... you got me convinced" lol

Bluffing on paired boards and boards with trips rarely works out for me. I stopped doing it a long time ago...until today when I broke that self imposed rule twice. Neither time worked. 😀 Ended up running into the nuts both times.

Idk. I got this one through yesterday. i think it's just about recognising the context better (and not mindlessly jamming into strong ranges like OP):

BTN: 273.2 BB
SB: 517.6 BB
Hero (BB): 144 BB
UTG: 206.2 BB
MP: 160.8 BB
CO: 108.2 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has J♦ K♥

fold, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to 3 BB, Hero raises to 11 BB, SB calls 8 BB

Flop: (22 BB, 2 players) 4♥ 5♠ 4♣
SB checks, Hero bets 7 BB, SB calls 7 BB

Turn: (36 BB, 2 players) 4♦
SB checks, Hero bets 25 BB, fold

Hero wins 34.6 BB and aliens are therefore REAL

I can get behind that one, makes much more sense.