NL10 - was my hero fold with AA good or too tight

If you filter your DB for 3b flop all-ins @ 5nlz or wherever the trouble with potentially overfolding is that it's technically an ~800/100bb tier printing spot. a.k.a. big slice of WR

Nuances here ofc. But are we really saying this exact villain couldn'tplay AK like this? Pre: dunno how to play (fair enough); OTF: panic raise! (I know I used to). It doesn't seem that contradictory to me.

Also, zooming out, this is AA v QQ, blind v blind, on a KQx board and is very often etiher a) all-in pre, or b) a flop cooler. When the board looks more like K♥ Q♦ J♦ ok now we're ****ed and would be making a decent mistake overcalling. The squeeze/cold-call complicates things but it's still essentially a 3b/cold call scenario (MP3 wuz clearly weak) and micro fish will show up with all sorts in those kinds of spots:

PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 157.6 BB
Hero (SB): 208.2 BB
BB: 85.8 BB
UTG: 107.8 BB
MP: 124.4 BB
CO: 430.6 BB

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has K♦ K♣

UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 12 BB, BB calls 11 BB, fold

Flop: (27 BB, 2 players) 8♣ 5♠ Q♦
Hero bets 8.6 BB, BB raises to 73.8 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 65.2 BB

Turn: (174.6 BB, 2 players) 7♣

River: (174.6 BB, 2 players) 3♥

BB cashed out 33 BB for a fee of 0.4 BB

Hero shows K♦ K♣ (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 87%, Flop 80%, Turn 89%)
BB shows Q♣ J♦ (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 13%, Flop 20%, Turn 11%)
Hero wins 167.4 BB

Probably not an essential mistake at these stakes. If you just want to beat micros where EV is as abundant as oxygen, or perhaps you see it more as saving EV in the abstract by overfolding in general to close spots because it's either easier to think about and/or being a station is a bigger leak - fine, i think that makes sense. But i worry we need to be conscious that moving up this kind of 'fundamental' mistake will only cost us exponentially worse. Same fishes. Same spot. Precious EV etc

Another way to think about it might be ask yourself: what action did I take that would annoy aner0 the most?

What were that guys stats though? Looks like a whale

I wouldn't have known (or cared tbh) at the time, it was just the only hand I could find right now vaguely similar enough to OP.

In the same sample I have too many to print 100bb players raise/jamming silly hands otf though. Which is basically the point I'm trying to make. Zero non-nutted hands is too far.

If we want to fold pure bluff catcher we just need opponent that is not over bluffing. If he bluff correctly calling is 0ev, if he under bluffs then fold is great.

If we want to fold value catcher, fold is good only if opponent is under bluffing and going tighter for value, so in this case fold is bad even if he just plays normal.

yeah exactly. Here is an example of where I completely misplayed this concept:

PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 141.6 BB
Hero (SB): 126.6 BB
BB: 100 BB
UTG: 100 BB
MP: 106.8 BB
CO: 301.6 BB

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has T♥ T♦

fold, MP raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 12 BB, fold, MP calls 10 BB

Flop: (25 BB, 2 players) 7♦ 9♥ 9♠
Hero bets 12 BB, MP raises to 94.8 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 82.8 BB

Turn: (214.6 BB, 2 players) 3♠

River: (214.6 BB, 2 players) 6♣

Hero shows T♥ T♦ (Two Pair, Tens and Nines)
(Pre 18%, Flop 12%, Turn 5%)
MP shows Q♣ Q♦ (Two Pair, Queens and Nines)
(Pre 82%, Flop 88%, Turn 95%)
MP wins 205.6 BB

In this scenario V has basically no worse value hands and is almost never punting AK, so is the kind of spot folding OPs makes total sense.

I think people are underestimating how tight this spot is preflop. Two limps, a big iso raise in MP, a huge 3b from OOP, then a coldcall by BB who isn't an obvious whale. This is just going to be some amount of KQs, AQs, and TT-QQ almost always, and AQ, TT, and JJ aren't going to be played this way postflop often or at all by anyone who isn't a maniac.

I get it. Everything hinges on this. But it works the other way too. All the crazy town cold-call ranges they autofold are only making this range relatively stronger and more dense in AK than it otherwise would be.
And we only need a flicker of those to be locked in. We lose very often, yeah. But we have to, don’t we? We have to lose to all their QQ.
For folding to be better than calling two things need to be true:
-- V never has AK preflop
- - V never raises AK on the flop

I think that’s a difficult thing to prove. [If anyone has any hhs that support the alternative by all means.] For both things to be true this has to be a very specific type of fish, which then = autofold. Whereas most or many fish will call AK pre here imo, and a decent % of those will raise the flop. And a decent % of those will raise or jam with interesting hands.

I’m trying to find BB cold-call hands in PT but I’m still crap at filters. It’s an interesting range so would be good to get some data on it.

Where is DDP when you need him?

But why do you think someone who according to the OP seems like a solid player (probably some kind of reg) and is playing 25/20 (though over an unspecified amount of hands) would ever play some kind of elaborate coldcall range in this situation, why would it include AK, and why would they play it this way when you can easily have QQ/KK/AK/AA/AJs/ATs/KQs/JTs in the SB? This isn't a situation where people lose their minds.

I play against a lot of bad regs and a lot of fish/whales, and it takes a special kind of whale to coldcall the BB in this situation with anything but a super tight range that crushes this board.

DooDooPoker, he's still active? Has he crushed HS at this point?
I remember every hand he posted ended up with a super thin bluff shove lol.

All previously addressed in my posts above if you care to read them.

DDP is alive and grinding. Thread 'ere:
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/174/p...

I read them, but your posts are of hands that you played in different situations that don't seem relevant to this hand for one reason or another.

The read in this hand is 25/20 and seems like a solid player, and if that is remotely close to accurate, AK virtually never shows up here for that general type of preflop player, and neither does the unspecified crazy wide range you're saying shows up here and plays this way. I think you have maybe 30% equity at best when you jam, but probably a lot less since I think this is weighted heavily to QQ. You need something like 30-35%.

I don't think jamming is a torch or anything, but I don't think it's winning in reality in this specific situation given all of the action in front of BB.

Just skimmed through that thread and I swear it just added negative 10bb/100 for my next few sessions lol... some of those calls seem insane!

😃