Getting ****ed up on Monoville St

What are you saying we have here? 88?

Solver will have flushes in this line. QQ plays like this too @ 100bb

I also think they're pretty weak and likely overstabbing, so extending makes sense MDA wise

Don't want to dig on creative play but this hand has me so confused I might just pay the 30bb to sate my curiosity.

Would have expected solver flushes to CRAI so we can also do it with the naked flush A, but ok I believe you.

I would still call you down because I don't think people x back enough value. Maybe that would actually make it a nice play with a wider value range.

What do you think their range looks like and what do you expect folds from? I guess that would be a good basis for discussion

I think pre should be pure 3bet this deep
Not the biggest fan of the river. I don't know what he bluffs in this spot and if he is not bluffing much you need him to fold a lot of value hands. Hand selection is random as well.

I think their range is pretty weak in this line (solver bets big otr and polarizes). This looked like a bad attempt at thin value to me in game so any pair as a rule.

Not expecting any folds from Qx+ or A3s obv. But the rest? I think so unless total station. Even fish fold weak ranges vs scary river raises when they've accidentally played face up.

Hand selection? Well... indeed. Monoboard chaos. I made it up on the spot if you want the god's honest.

But breaking it down:

Raising everything would be yikes, but solvers often choose non-SDV suited Ax to bluff. We block some straights. KJs would be better but there's only 4 of them. JTs less good because we want them to have JJ/TT. Our pairs split calling/folding. What else is there really? AK I guess. AJo without ♠ maybe. Though specifically not blocking ♠ combos seems a plus after this action.

Good point. I played this whole hand as 100bb until I got to the river and thought: '****... i can't jam'

Population underbluffs on monotone boards in this line so I'd be careful bluffing.

If I did bluff I'd raise bigger and use some sort of blocker.

PP with the blocker, main hand you are trying to fold out is AQ so Ax seems like bad blocker.

4 is a lot of combos in this spot. You don't have much value and raise is tiny, so you can't bluff that much.

Hmm. Are we really targetting AQ though? I doubt AQ ever folds enough, plus they might not even have it?

Anyway, Ok. It's probably an overcooked turkey.

Result:

It seems spewy but you can do whatever you want if you think people are folding too much.

Yeah exactly. Zander gets it

Half pot seems so sus on this runout.

Zero polarisation could be a massive tell couldn't it? It's the 'I don't know what I'm doing' size beloved of fish and badregs. While they might overcall raising the lower sizings thinking we're playing exploitatatively because they've shown weakness, subconsciously when we raise the larger size we look much stronger, like we've trapped a flush nearly always (would be my #1 assumption)

Empty the clip

I can't really see the case for holding flush blockers. They almost never have a flush in this line so we'd rather they have some slightly overcalled draws. Those would be in his '**** bet 50' range i think

That is like bottom of his value range 1/2 pot is too big of a size for JJ or TT imo.

Completely misread this hand.

Yeah huge overfold vs xc30-x-b50f so it's good.

MDA for these positions.

Kool. thanks