10NL AKo 3B Pot OOP SB vs BU
Villian looks to be a nitty reg. I've 3-bet him a couple times. He folded once, 4-bet another. I called his 4B and folded on an Ace high board facing a jam.
I used my free sim on GTO wizard for this board and the results were kind of weird. The sim likes 100% check/raise AhKx or AxKh on this board I guess b/c of the heart blocker and because BU is "supposed" to 4-bet a lot of AQo and KQo (very unlikely in this spot IMO).
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2
and Database Software
NL Holdem 0.1(BB)
HJ ($11.76) [VPIP: 19.6% | PFR: 16% | AGG: 27.9% | Hands: 228]
CO ($11.52) [VPIP: 34.3% | PFR: 22.9% | AGG: 42.1% | Hands: 35]
BTN ($12.28) [VPIP: 35.3% | PFR: 26% | AGG: 48.7% | Flop Agg: 50% | 3Bet: 14.5% | 4Bet: 33.3% | Hands: 157]
HERO ($11.11) [VPIP: 24.7% | PFR: 20.1%]
BB ($10) [VPIP: 21.3% | PFR: 17.9% | AGG: 33.3% | Hands: 247]
UTG ($10.90) [VPIP: 24.8% | PFR: 18.8% | AGG: 38.5% | Hands: 102]
Dealt to Hero: K♣ A♦
UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Raises To $0.23, HERO Raises To $0.89, BB Folds, BTN Calls $0.66
Hero SPR on Flop: [5.44 effective]
Flop ($1.88): Q♥ 5♥ J♠
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $1 (Rem. Stack: $10.39), HERO Folds
So the solver likes c-betting AKo near 100%. When it doesn't, it check/calls AK no hearts 100% of the time if it's 3/4 pot size or less presumably.
I do think that the solver output is kind of flawed in this spot. I already mentioned the AQ/KQ problem. BU is also checking back some Qx in the sim, which isn't very likely here IMO. Nor are the pocket pair and suited connector bluffs.
Lastly, there's also a lot of reverse implied odds, and I'm out of position with the #1 hand he's going to be putting me on. Although I would check some other hands of various strength here, so I'm not totally face up.
Looking to see what you guys think here and compare it to what I find out in GTO+.
Spoiler
In case you were wondering, if we call and the turn is a blank, we're supposed to shove AKo no heart vs BU's preferred sizing of 45% pot for a small profit. Which I think is kind of funny.
5 Replies
I think chk/folding and betting like 50% are both fine. I wouldnt chk/raise cause I am a nit
BTN stats in the HH are not consistent with "nitty reg"?
BU is supposed to attack this flop plenty when we X, so we shuould defend a GS + overs usually (but it's low EV so whatev). You are correct gtow 3b sims should be taken with a pinch of sodium chloride
3b bigger (10bb+). Bet flop.
Just bet, why are you overthinking the spot? It's good if he folds his underpairs and if he doesnt then you print all the times you have a made hand here. If he raises then fold. If he calls then play a turn
35/26, nitty reg? Just c-bet here. There's still plenty your opponent is going to fold out.
