hitting flush OTT
Villain is very tight, VPIP 19 PFR 11
€0.10 NL FAST (6 max)
BTN: 183.5 BB
SB: 130.2 BB
Hero (BB): 100 BB
UTG: 100.5 BB
MP: 100 BB
CO: 100 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 4♦ 5♦
fold, MP raises to 2.3 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 1.3 BB
Flop: (5.1 BB, 2 players) 8♥ 6♦ 7♦
Hero checks, MP bets 3.6 BB, Hero raises to 11.5 BB, MP calls 7.9 BB
Turn: (28.1 BB, 2 players) 2♦
Hero ?
I did not save the solve, but I remember GTO+ checks range here (not against a nit but vs a GTO opponent). Do you understand why? What would you do in practice?
4 Replies
If his really that tight then it's less likely to open T9s A3s A9s, he is still opening 99+
I would bet 1/2 or 2/3 and target over-pairs and sets
Also would raise 4x or larger OTF because nit betting = has it, esp for this size on flop that is almost worst on possible
I would bet 14-18.5bb on the turn. Against a fish I would bet 23bb
Thanks for the answers. That's what I did.
However the solver says I'm supposed to check my entire range!
Apparently this is because Hero was supposed to x/r flop also with much more speculative holdings, for example 6h3h at some frequency. HJ doesn't even have those hands to begin with and brings a lot of diamond combos on the turn, which makes their range is actually stronger thans ours.
I find it interesting, it means I misplay flop by not x/r weak draws enough and I don't have the correct picture of what should be my range on the turn.
Maybe I should solve it again removing some hands from HJ range to account for the fact they're nitty as suggested by DeeKayBee
Don't check, he will check behind with everything except better flushes.. Its ok to look at solver but your opponent isnt playing gto. You're not getting away from your hand realistically, so just bet and hope he has something he can continue with
