NL10 - Turning my gutshot to a bluff. Yay or Nay

Flop bet x/r feels ok based on reasoning but after a call, you need a solid turn and the 3s isn't it. You're able to rep 9s, 5s, JJ/QQ and maybe a strong FD. With villain 3betting 33%+ combined with calling you easily, I'm concerned he is quite strong. The river eliminates a possible hand you could have plus the board is full of missed draws, I feel a x/f is in order.

Nay.

Villain flops a big advantage here, something to take note of. Villain is cbetting 100% as they should. However, the value of raising here comes from the fact that they will have to defend hands that are not very intuitive to call. So likely you will get overfolds here, so I'm fine with the flop raise as an exploit.

Turn and river you have to think about how the cards affect your range. All of your bluffs miss and your value range becomes even thinner withe river pairing. You are repping about 4 combos or value with about 30 potential bluffs. It's not difficult for your opponent to notice this. And by the river, you will be faced with a very strong range with a lot of AK, AA, kk, 99 and the like. Sure, some Ak, kq might fold, and some a-high flush draws, but it's not a great spot at all.

Very valuable opinions and I must agree. I dont like my turn and river barrels anymore so much. I will reveal what happened in a couple of days.

I think its a fold to 3b pre? Not the worst call tho
C/r bluff you would prefer 8d7d with the bd flushdraw but I guess its ok. Better than calling anyway
Turn maybe I give up but as played you have to run it. You are nut bottom of range and don't have clubs in your hand so I think shove is pretty mandatory

It is. Calling 3bets IP with suited connectors is losing or break even at best probably, and that's assuming you're playing great postflop. OOP I think this is a huge leak.

Yeh I think fold or 4 bet pre is better but that fella had 3 betted me like 3-4 times already and I had this feeling that he would just call my 4bet and then I have to play a big pot OOP. Bad reasoning for a call though but I shouted to him that YOU WILL NOT PUSH ME AROUND ANYMORE and clicked call.

Well I ended up blasting the river and he used like 5 seconds of the timebank amd clicked call with KT....

In villains shoes I would have thought more than 5 secs tho before calling with KT. Well I hope we meet again with him and them I can stack him off with KJ #powerdreams lol

Yeah. Obviously calling IP is going to depend a bit on who is doing the 3betting, the size of their 3bet, positions and if you have reads on their postflop play and idea about how you can exploit that. My advice would be to work out your range from the CO, then figure out how much of it you need to be defending vs an average sized 3bet. Then choose what hands and how you're going to defend them before hand, you want to be 4betting more when OOP and calling infrequently, IP you can afford to call a bit more. Saves you getting into these spots where you think you're being exploited. You need to defend roughly 33% of your range, but that will change depending on positions. So when you're UTG and MP 3bets you for example, you don't need to defend as much because the table is defending you somewhat(his 3bet has to get through 4 other players, 2 of which have position on him). Not so much when they're on the button, SB or BB. If they're 3betting larger again you don't need to defend as much, smaller you need to defend a bit more etc.

Good stuff! I dont know anything about defending frequencies. I need to investigate these more. Thank you for the tip! 😀