NL5 - QQ - What could I have done?
PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BB: 100 BB
Hero (UTG): 111.4 BB
CO: 144 BB
BTN: 152 BB
SB: 100 BB
SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Q♣ Q♦
Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB raises to 12 BB, Hero calls 9 BB
Flop: (24.4 BB, 2 players) 3♥ 7♦ 5♠
BB bets 9 BB, Hero calls 9 BB
Turn: (42.4 BB, 2 players) 8♦
BB bets 22.2 BB, Hero calls 22.2 BB
River: (86.8 BB, 2 players) 3♠
BB bets 56.8 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 56.8 BB
BB shows K♦ K♣ (Two Pair, Kings and Threes)
(Pre 83%, Flop 91%, Turn 95%)
Hero shows Q♣ Q♦ (Two Pair, Queens and Threes)
(Pre 17%, Flop 9%, Turn 5%)
BB wins 190.4 BB
7 Replies
You could have raised flop or turn, but that would not have changed the outcome 😀
There is probably an argument to be made about microstakes players having no bluff here on the river, also because they 3bet ultra-tight from BB (even more so against UTG), and then you can fold.
But honestly QQ < KK is probably not the hand you want to worry about first and start implementing big deviations vs the standard play which I'm 99.9% sure is to stack off one way or the other on this board. Sometimes you will have KK vs their QQ and that will even out.
I just think the triple barrel here, with that sizing on the river, is underbluffed. So I think you can get away on river.
The key question to ask here is how many hands do you think opponent is going to triple barrel here that you beat? Unless you have reasons to suggest otherwise I think it's safe to assume at the micros that realistic that your opponents range by the time we get to the river is going to be narrowed down to pocket pairs that make better two pair (AA, KK) and perhaps we can throw in a couple of the lower pocket pair (88, 77) that have made full houses. The question is whether you think your opponent is capable of making this play with (JJ, TT?) if you think they are then we have enough equity to justify making the call.
Meh. I'm folding 99-JJ on turn already, but I call down QQ unless I know he's a real nit. I'm a BE player on nl25 for 200k hands now on GG, pre rakeback ofc.
[maybe because I don't fold here? 😀) ].
They will do this with AK and JJ enough times for me to justify the call. My philosophy is that sometimes you just gotta risk getting screwed, and QQ in this spot is where I'm ready for it. One could argue your hand is slightly underrepped here.
Instafold after flop if A or K comes up.
At the same time, some say that in marginal situations at the micros they ALWAYS have it, avoid risk by overfolding and just focus on more lucrative spots with clear fat value.
Sadly my opponent below did not get the memo regarding microstakes villains always having it, hand I played today.
I think this is a very wrong assumption to use on the population in general. My guess is this is never ever a fold in theory, and if I am right I don't think we can use a dubious assumption to deviate that much. We can't check in a solver, because the preflop range for BB will include some garbage hands like Q7s, K4s and 54s which impact the result a lot I assume. And in my tracker I see that 95% of my microstakes opponents do not 3bet that range from BB.
€0.10 NL FAST (6 max)
BTN: 100 BB
Hero (SB): 103.1 BB
BB: 124.4 BB
UTG: 107 BB
MP: 191.1 BB
CO: 98.6 BB
Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♠ J♠
UTG raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 10 BB, fold, UTG calls 8 BB
Flop: (21 BB, 2 players) K♣ Q♠ 4♦
Hero bets 6.6 BB, UTG calls 6.6 BB
Turn: (34.2 BB, 2 players) 6♦
Hero bets 21.5 BB, UTG calls 21.5 BB
River: (77.2 BB, 2 players) 2♥
Hero bets 65 BB and is all-in, UTG calls 65 BB
Hero shows A♠ J♠ (High Card, Ace)
(Pre 29%, Flop 21%, Turn 9%)
UTG shows A♥ Q♥ (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 71%, Flop 79%, Turn 91%)
UTG wins 196.8 BB
I hate JJ-QQ. I think I should start treating them as 99-TT and I would save moneyz
I probably would have 4 bet it pre and be very carful making the all in call depending on player type, especially UTG v BB. Super tight players, i actually would consider folding to the jam, more aggro/loose guys, I'm ripping it in, assuming 100bb stacks. If he flats the 4 bet and there isnt any K or A on the flop and he calls your cbet, then you are probably good to stack off. As played, I'd probably fold river. I don't think pool is finding enough bluffs on those paired boards especially, and his range is uncapped. On the other hand, you under- repped the strength of your hand-- but situations like this are why i prefer the 4 bet. Makes it alot easier to find those folds in these spots.