Top pair facing river overbet
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software
NL Holdem 0.05(BB)
HERO ($7.66) [VPIP: 24.6% | PFR: 20.3% | AGG: 35.5% | Flop Agg: 38.6% | Turn Agg: 36.6% | River Agg: 32.3% | 3Bet: 7.8% | 4Bet: 9.5% | Hands: 35616]
BTN ($3.21) [VPIP: 34% | PFR: 20.6% | AGG: 18.5% | Hands: 101]
SB ($5) [VPIP: 20.8% | PFR: 17.5% | AGG: 30.5% | Hands: 1116]
BB ($5.90) [VPIP: 24.6% | PFR: 20% | AGG: 39% | Flop Agg: 31.6% | Turn Agg: 35.7% | River Agg: 71.4% | 3Bet: 17% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 10.5% | Hands: 132]
HJ ($11.83) [VPIP: 17.9% | PFR: 15.3% | AGG: 25.5% | Hands: 202]
Dealt to Hero: A♦ 9♦
HJ Folds, HERO Raises To $0.12, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Calls $0.07
Hero SPR on Flop: [22.23 effective]
Flop ($0.26): A♠ T♠ 8♠
BB Checks, HERO Checks
Turn ($0.26): A♠ T♠ 8♠ T♣
BB Bets $0.19 (Rem. Stack: $5.59), HERO Calls $0.19 (Rem. Stack: $7.35)
River ($0.64): A♠ T♠ 8♠ T♣ 2♣
BB Bets $0.71 (Rem. Stack: $4.88)
14 Replies
Why not cbet?
I would call down but it's not like you are winning much.
You can't call because there's 3 bad data points.
Monotone board/Ace high board/paired OTT
You could fold which would be standard.
I'd jam in game because this guy looks reggy and I think flushes fold. Also from MDA we see pretty big discrepancies on monotone boards and alpha. For me it's between folding and jamming, calling is a losing play.
I don't think it achieves much unless I increase my sizing. Would rather see a turn first before start bloating the pot and I'll balance this with other pair plus spade hands. Not totally sold though, cbetting could be better.
My thoughts on river are, I have tons of Tx and Ax in my range after checking flop. He should know that. Not sure if it's good I unblock spades since single spade unpaired hands are his value and his bluffs. I think the last 4-5 times i called an overbet it was value. Feels like I should call but idk
If raises are under bluffed, then raising range blocks a lot of hands that OOP should call, so discrepancy might be in part due the blocker effects.
I don't think it achieves much unless I increase my sizing. Would rather see a turn first before start bloating the pot and I'll balance this with other pair plus spade hands. Not totally sold though, cbetting could be better.
My thoughts on river are, I have tons of Tx and Ax in my range after checking flop. He should know that. Not sure if it's good I unblock spades since single spade unpaired hands are his value and his bluffs. I think the last 4-5 times i called an overbet it was value. Feel
You get calls from weaker hands and you are ahead of single spade, so you win a bit from those too. Main factor otf is how often he raises and second is he going to be hyper aggressive vs check. In most cases low limit regs are too passive so you can go ahead and bet.
If raises are under bluffed, then raising range blocks a lot of hands that OOP should call, so discrepancy might be in part due the blocker effects.
yeah I noticed that and I think there is something to it as we see it in every monotone board/4 flush spot OTR for folding frequencies.
I can see just folding if you want to go the conservative route but I still prefer jamming because I think flushes fold.
It's just folding frequencies so 1-MDF = Alpha
It's just folding frequencies so 1-MDF = Alpha
ah ok, never heard it expressed as alpha before.
Thanks for the input guys.
As for the results... we will never know, I tanked and folded.
Good fold imo. Double tap here looks a lot like pay me tax
EDIT; I would be impressed if 5nl are folding flushes
I’m turbo folding this without any kind of history with BB.
I like DooDoos take. Would prefer a Ten though
I would fold and take a note that villain overbets river when flop goes chkchk on a monotone board and turn pairs
