Deep - River Bluff XR vs. R-XB-B
GG Poker - $0.05 Ante $0.02 NL - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
UTG: 335 BB
Hero (CO): 201.6 BB
BTN: 242.2 BB
SB: 230.6 BB
BB: 211 BB
5 players post ante of 0.4 BB, SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 3.4 BB) Hero has T♦ J♥
fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, fold
Flop: (9.4 BB, 2 players) Q♣ 4♥ 9♦
Hero bets 3.2 BB, BTN raises to 11.2 BB, Hero calls 8 BB
Turn: (31.8 BB, 2 players) J♣
Hero checks, BTN checks
River: (31.8 BB, 2 players) A♠
Hero checks, BTN bets 10.6 BB, Hero raises to 40 BB
Weird line by villain, dont know what to make of it. His river bet sizing seems weak, probably no bluff, but a thin value hand (KQ, weak Ax) which doenst want to see a raise. My hand blocks some 2p and str8 combinations aka KT & T8. Is my bluff reasonable/profitable?
5 Replies
Not thrilled. Mainly expecting 5nl villain to overcall merged and even slowplay stronger hands.
Bigger raise might be better. There might be some gto basis that makes it good vs a reg (who wouln't be flatting much anyway pre), but dunno vs fish.
It does make some sense though so can't be awful.
Likely Villain is a fish so I don’t like it. We don’t want to use XR lines as bluffs vs fish since they overcall.
I’d just call river.
Interested in results.
your thread is very inspiring x3. calling seems fine too. villain called with 99 and chickend out ott.
I don't like it at all really.
Raising rivers as a bluff requires you to be kind of aware what both ranges look like. In this case you arrive to the river where both ranges are pretty strong and no more money is piled to the pot unless someone has 2 pair or better.
Your raise size requires ~50% fold equity:
Let's say villains betting range contains 10% some spazz PP/KJ/JT/Ax, and the rest is 2p+.
With villains line and sizing I'd say it's mostly 2p that is left. Let's anyway assume 10% of villains range is stronger than 2p that's never folding.
If we summarize villains range as follows:
10% snap folds
80% 2p <---- what we're targeting
10% snap calls/3b
Required fold equity is 50%. 10% of V range snap folds, we still need 40% of villains range to fold, and the next category is 2p which takes up 80% of villains range. V needs to fold half of those, will he? Doubt it. In these cases we need way bigger sizings to polarize to a set+ & bluffs. I'm not a fan of jamming or massive raising vs a weaker player here.
