River Bluffcatch
GG Poker - $0.05 Ante $0.02 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BTN: 214.8 BB
SB: 357.6 BB
BB: 356.2 BB
UTG: 48.6 BB
UTG+1: 123.4 BB
MP: 285.8 BB
Hero (MP+1): 200 BB
MP+2: 248.6 BB
CO: 208 BB
9 players post ante of 0.4 BB, SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 5 BB) Hero has K♠ K♦
fold, UTG+1 raises to 3.6 BB, fold, Hero raises to 13 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, UTG+1 calls 9.4 BB
Flop: (31 BB, 2 players) 9♦ 2♦ 3♥
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets 17.2 BB, UTG+1 calls 17.2 BB
Turn: (65.4 BB, 2 players) Q♠
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks
River: (65.4 BB, 2 players) A♣
UTG+1 snap bets 65.4 BB, Hero ?
I think that turn is over-folded so I see more merit in checking back in order to get a lighter call otr or induce a light river bluff from villain. My turn checkback is also based on Kd, because I need less protection and block villains call w/ KQdd - w/o the Kd I would certainly cbet ott.
River card is ugly. I lose vs. 99, QQ and some Axdd, but there are a lot of potential bluff combos in form of low pockets / busted flushdraws. Is this spot over-bluffed? Also, idk, if snap makes it more likely a bluff or value hand - I tend towards value tbh.
2 Replies
I think you should bet turn regardless.
River I'd default to a fold. OOP is still very much uncapped (can have ~all sets), some 2p and maybe even 54s. I feel the PSB here otr is going to be a bit stronger compared to other sizings and I also would imagine it is not uncommon for OOP player to put you on AK quite often, so when they bet the river themselves for PSB I'd imagine its mostly >AK.
Agree with turn bet. When you bet big otf his range is more or less PP FD and some AQ type of hands. Vs fd and Qx you want to bet, PP wont bluff river so you are just giving them chance to hit set otr. QQ is nicer combo to slow play all PP pairs are dead and FD have less equity and you block top of the calling range.
