[MICRO] 5NL - Hero BB Bluff vs. BTN
Curious as to thoughts on this hand history. At the time, I thought I found a good bluff spot. Still think it was fine, but getting frustrated by lack of folds to microstakes bluffs. Maybe need to dial back the bluffs even in theoretically sound spots. History below.
Yatahay Network - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com
CO: 97.6 BB (VPIP: 53.85, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 28)
BTN: 184 BB (VPIP: 25.04, PFR: 21.07, 3Bet Preflop: 9.64, Hands: 1,228)
SB: 136.8 BB (VPIP: 34.62, PFR: 24.04, 3Bet Preflop: 10.34, Hands: 210)
Hero (BB): 108 BB
UTG: 21.6 BB
MP: 179.4 BB (VPIP: 16.74, PFR: 14.14, 3Bet Preflop: 5.65, Hands: 2,497)
SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 3s Ad
fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.4 BB, fold, Hero calls 1.4 BB
Flop : (5.2 BB, 2 players) 2s 2h 8d
Hero checks, BTN bets 2.4 BB, Hero calls 2.4 BB
Turn : (10 BB, 2 players) 7d
Hero checks, BTN bets 13.4 BB, Hero raises to 35 BB, BTN calls 21.6 BB
River : (80 BB, 2 players) Jd
Hero bets 68.2 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 68.2 BB
BTN shows 9d 6d (Flush, Jack High)
(Pre 45%, Flop 30%, Turn 45%)
Hero shows 3s Ad (One Pair, Twos)
(Pre 55%, Flop 70%, Turn 55%)
BTN wins 205.6 BB
8 Replies
Theoretically sound? Turn is a fold
I agree I could easily fold turn, but I thought I saw a profitable bluff line, considering I have much more 2x calling from the BB, and the BTN gave me good odds to attempt a bluff with the overbet sizing. I thought that if a diamond hit on the river, which it did, I would be able to fold out almost all of BTN's hands with the Ad blocker. Clearly that did not work in this instance since he showed up with a flush, but is it not enough that we should get all of BTN's overpairs and potentially some 2x combos to fold on the river with a jam?
In other words, assuming we need some bluffs in theory, was this not a good candidate?
It would be better, of course, to use the A-high flush draw, but since I would 3bet many suited aces vs. a BTN open, I thought that I need to incorporate some bluffs with just the naked Ad.
I believe in general when an opponent overbets the turn @ 5NL is not the moment to run a huge bluff. Also A3o is a losing call preflop BB vs BTN. On the flop your call is optimistic to say the lease vs 1/2 pot cbet.
Once you are there river bluff seems "mandatory" I imagine.
It would be better, of course, to use the A-high flush draw, but since I would 3bet many suited aces vs. a BTN open, I thought that I need to incorporate some bluffs with just the naked Ad.
Yeh I get your reasoning but when you use the term "theoretically sound" in poker it is taken to mean as part of a gto strategy and if you run the hand in a solver then it folds A3o preflop and on the turn here
You don't need air bluffs here when he overbets since as you said you will have 2x more often, plus you will have 7x and 8x that calls and you will have turned some fd which can call or raise the turn
So raising A3o is pushing it a bit far as a bluff in theory
When a 5NL player overbets turn, fold. You're trying to be unexploitable against people who have no interest whatsoever in exploiting you for the sake of "balance."
Even just looking at it non quantitatively, you have no twos, the only 8 you have is A8 or MAYBE 78/98, you don't have any high overpairs because you're not just check calling those. His exact hand was your best case scenario and he still had great numbers.
What are you folding out on the river?
I think you played it fine until the turn - but at the turn, assuming no robotics (play operates completely differently against them) you have no wins left.
You can fold pre vs. 2.4x with A3o here for now. It's ~0EV defend, and likely -EV in higher rake environment (micros), vs. a reg (25-21 stats), and at your current skill level.
