NL10 - Tough spot with QQ as Squeezer vs UTG flat
Villain 19/14, 3bet: 5%, hands: 540, 4bet from UTG 25% of 4 samples.
Very good flop for me, I thought I would bet only 1/3 but decided to go little bigger. I guess 1/3 would be standard? Villain makes a big c/r. Should I call, fold or JAM? Am I crazy of thinking folding and this might be KK/AA trapping me? Could be TT too. Can this player type ever do it with JJ?
SB: $17.77 (177.7 bb)
BB: $10 (100 bb)
UTG+1: $22.75 (227.5 bb)
UTG+2: $11.14 (111.4 bb)
MP1: $27.37 (273.7 bb)
MP2: $11.55 (115.5 bb)
Hero (MP3): $14.68 (146.8 bb)
CO: $10 (100 bb)
BTN: $8.39 (83.9 bb)
Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q
Q
UTG+1 raises to $0.25, 2 folds, MP2 calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.40, 4 folds, UTG+1 calls $1.15, MP2 calls $1.15
Flop: ($4.53) 4
6
T
(3 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets $2.15, UTG+1 raises to $6.45, Hero?
13 Replies
What MP2 did?
You suppose to jam this, but he is super nitty so maybe you can even fold
Jamming seems pretty bad, given how tight villain is.
Villain never has 44 and maybe doesn't have 66 either.
Their raise is a little big for a hand like JJ, 99-88 that is looking to deny equity, especially with your large sizing.
Seems like an exploifold
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If this was 6max and Mr. nit would be 6max UTG, he'd have any sets here, and would raise to similar size as he's afraid of flush completions.
As this is full ring, we may be in a better position as he may only have TT as set here.
When I put it into equilab TT+ vs QQ you have 30% equity. That includes JJ, and doesn't include 66 and 44. Include those, you are utterly crushed. We can include AcKc, KcQc and AcQc as well, you flip against them. Still underdog. Even in the most optimistic scenarios you are behind here, it has to be a fold.
Jam. We have tons (50%+) equity vs a speculative range.
Stats aren't that conclusive. I'd want to know they are a super nit (i.e. showdowns) before getting too foldy here at this spr. Fish love draws.
Jam. We have tons (50%+) equity vs a speculative range.
Stats aren't that conclusive. I'd want to know they are a super nit (i.e. showdowns) before getting too foldy here at this spr. Fish love draws.
Seems more like a TAG than a fish to me? Not sure if 19/14 calls a lot with speculative hands from UTG against a SQZ 😮
Nit pre doesn't necessarily mean nit post.
I did fold, not sure what villain had. The End
Yeah passives are almost always also stations so they tend to take a wider range to the flop than they should.
There are some tight players who play almost all their OPs as traps preflop and it's a good idea to mark those somehow so when they do this yes it's usually an autofold. But that's an overall smaller subset of the tight fish population ime. There are as many/ more tight passives who completely massacre their range by overplaying. I'm not really a stats guy though.
I imagine folding is fine too but I would jam and w/e; i try and lean into the initiative if it's close.
As for me until proven otherwise for a specific opponent I consider both go along. A lot of those players won't release their pocket pairs even facing this huge squeeze size, in hope they finally hit their holy set on the flop. Because setmining is the beginning and the end of their postflop play. They won't ever ever raise JJ here, and very rarely a draw except the nut flush draw. Good fold in my opinion, annoying but... next hand!
We'd be shipping in roughly 8 to win a pot of like 24.5 if we shove.
If he probably only has 3 combos that beat you and you're basically flipping vs his draws, he doesn't have to show up with a hand like JJ that often for shoving to be +EV.
Yeah passives are almost always also stations so they tend to take a wider range to the flop than they should.
There are some tight players who play almost all their OPs as traps preflop and it's a good idea to mark those somehow so when they do this yes it's usually an autofold. But that's an overall smaller subset of the tight fish population ime. There are as many/ more tight passives who completely massacre their range by overplaying. I'm not really a stats guy though.
I imagine folding is fi
As for me until proven otherwise for a specific opponent I consider both go along. A lot of those players won't release their pocket pairs even facing this huge squeeze size, in hope they finally hit their holy set on the flop. Because setmining is the beginning and the end of their postflop play. They won't ever ever raise JJ here, and very rarely a draw except the nut flush draw. Good fold in my opinion, annoying but... next hand!
We'd be shipping in roughly 8 to win a pot of like 24.5 if we shove.
If he probably only has 3 combos that beat you and you're basically flipping vs his draws, he doesn't have to show up with a hand like JJ that often for shoving to be +EV.
Good thoughts! ♥
